Major PLA Structural Announcements on a weekend?

Is anyone else out there wondering why China would make significant military announcements when the USGOV isn’t paying attention?

3259521140

China upgrades missile force, adds space and cyber war forces

China on Friday unveiled further details of one of its largest military reforms, launching three new bodies of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), including an army command, an upgraded missile force and a special force for space and cyber wars.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, who also heads the Central Military Committee (CMC), on Thursday conferred military flags to the commanders of the three bodies, namely the PLA Army General Command, the PLA Rocket Force and the PLA Strategic Support Force, at their inauguration ceremony in Beijing.

This is part of China’s key reforms aimed at enhancing the Communist Party of China’s (CPC) leadership over the military, and boosting the PLA’s combat capabilities by establishing a modern military system.

Rocket force

Analysts said the establishment of the PLA Rocket Force is an upgrade of the previous Second Artillery Force, which operates strategic as well as conventional missile weapons.

The upgrade places the rocket force on an equal footing with the army, navy and air force, said Song Zhongping, a military expert.

The name change to the Rocket Force from “Second Artillery Force” also shows China’s determination to enhance military transparency. It will also impose strong strategic deterrence, he said.

The Defense Ministry on Friday stressed that the establishment of the Rocket Force does not mean a major change of its nuclear policy.

Reiterating its no-first-use nuclear weapons policy and defensive nuclear strategy, spokesperson Yang Yujun said at a press conference that China’s nuclear policy remains consistent, and China always keeps its nuclear capability at the minimum level required for safeguarding its national security.

“We will strive to build a strong and modern Rocket Force,” he said.

Cyber and space forces

Yang did not get into much detail about what the Strategic Support Force is, but said it is a force which combines the strategic, basic and support resources of the country’s new type of combat forces.

But Song said this new force is mainly aimed at providing resources capable of protecting China’s cyber and space security.

Song said the establishment of the Strategic Support Force shows the Chinese leadership’s vision of building a military that can meet the challenges of not only traditional warfare but also of new warfare centered on new technology.

Army command

The army used to be supervised by four headquarters – the General Staff Headquarters, the General Political Department, the General Logistics Department and the General Armament Department.

The establishment of the Army General Command puts the control directly under the Central Military Commission. It is a major measure to improve the leadership and command system, the Ministry of National Defense said earlier.

Through a joint command and combat system, the Central Military Commission will be able to directly lead the army, the navy, the air force and rocket force, which will largely enhance the efficiency during wartime, said Song.

At Thursday’s conferral ceremony, President Xi said the move to form the Army General Command, the Rocket Force and the Strategic Support Force is a major decision by the CPC Central Committee and the Central Military Commission to realize the Chinese dream of a strong military, and a strategic step to establish a modern military system with Chinese characteristics.

It will be a milestone in the modernization of the Chinese military and will be recorded in the history of the people’s armed forces, according to Xi.

The Central Military Commission has also released a guideline on deepening national defense and military reform, about a month after Xi ordered a military administration and command system overhaul at a key meeting.

According to the guideline, a new structure will be established in which the CMC takes charge of the overall administration of the PLA, the Chinese People’s Armed Police and the militia and reserve forces, while battle zone commands focus on combat and various military services pursue development.

The military reforms, which will involve massive restructuring and regrouping, are expected to “make major breakthroughs” and achieve concrete results by 2020, according to the CMC.

Xinhua contributed to this story


The General Command of Army Badge. Photo source: weibo account of “yangshixinwen”.


The PLA Rocket Force Badge. Photo source: weibo account of “yangshixinwen”.
 

The PLA Strategic Support ForceBadge. Photo source: weibo account of “yangshixinwen”.

China’s Military Industry – 12 stocks worth reviewing

China’s Military Industry – 12 stocks worth reviewing

Category: Research institutions: Thailand Securities Co. Researcher: Benedict Hui, Guo Hao Date: 2015-10-08

China Nuclear Power Vision: The reason why the future of nuclear power is good, because it is not subject to the constraints of traditional domestic economic cycle, while executive power is coming to strongly promote things. To achieve the 2030 non-fossil energy sources accounted for 20% of target, nuclear power installed capacity will require 150 million to 200 million kilowatts, the next 15 years to build each year 10-15 million-kilowatt nuclear power generating units. This building is a great strength, because the Qinshan nuclear power plant since 1991 and has total domestic power generation nuclear power generating units put into operation, but 26 units. Conservative estimates now and the end of 2020 intends to start building nuclear power plants to 30 units, averaging approximately six, in addition if inland nuclear icebreaker (possibility of a large), the more the number of starts;

Technological catch-up, the efficiency of repression, the share of overseas expansion: Whether it is 1995 textile exports, the export of electromechanical products in 2005, or the export of nuclear power in 2015, are in fact Chinese technical standards in the cost efficiencies brought about essentially Global market share expansion. Although there is not much difference in the economic essence, but technically is leaps and bounds. China Manufacturing 2005 is the end of the world to catch up with the trend of the manufacturing sector, 2025 is made in China to catch up with high-end manufacturing. World Nuclear Association estimates that 2015–2030 years overseas in around 160 new nuclear power plants, investment $ 1.5 trillion, a huge market space. One of Hualong situation from signing, the Chinese technology to countries in Asia obviously attractive future with the promotion and CAP1400 Hualong One independent technology matures, China’s nuclear power in the global market share is expected to be further improved;

Nuclear main pump housing – casting industry the highest technical: should flow in 2014 namely, the production of China’s first nuclear CAP1400 blasting a stainless steel valve body, and then again to complete the CAP1400 nuclear localization of the main pump housing. Pump housing is one of the core components of the main pump and the nuclear island, manufacturing is extremely difficult, represents the highest technology in the world casting production. Prior to the domestic nuclear power plant main pump casing has been monopolized by overseas foundry, should flow to achieve import substitution has entered the post-production stage, becoming the third generation nuclear power main pump unit housing the only domestic suppliers;

Spent fuel and neutron absorbing material huge market: China’s nuclear power development has led to a top-heavy nuclear spent fuel reprocessing nuclear power plant construction than the broader market, we estimated 2015 domestic capacity of spent fuel unloaded 625 tons by 2020 could increase to 1450 tons. Much larger global market, in 2015 the world spent fuel discharged amount estimating at 9,442 tons, 15 times the Chinese market. Neutron absorbing material mainly used in the field of spent fuel storage, fuel storage pool grids and storage containers are required to set a neutron absorbing material, it is expected from 2016 onwards neutron absorbing material domestic demand will be explosive growth. Physics Institute should flow together engineering industrial projects expected to be completed in the next year, when the spent fuel storage container with the localization of products will be quickly occupied the domestic market. With the cost advantage of domestic equipment at the same time, the product is expected to enter the domestic market, 15 times the global market blue ocean;

Traditional product cycle end, new business space large: Yingliu traditional business earnings affected by fluctuations in oil prices, the number of US shale gas drilling rig at the bottom of the sharp drop in oil prices imply coming period, already greater than the risk of future opportunities. The new nuclear main pump housing business, neutron absorbing material, aviation engine / gas turbine blades and other projects to benefit from the expansion of the market at the same time, import substitution will occupy the domestic market share, and have the potential to open overseas markets, the growth of broad space. Companies on the performance of new products, good elasticity, fundamentals about to enter the fast climbing period;

Predict trends and investment advice: the future in favor of the company’s stock price positive factors include 1) the nuclear power industry in the fourth quarter a number of catalysts, including nuclear thirteen Five-Year Plan, dense nuclear power projects approved and started ice-breaking progress inland nuclear power, nuclear power and other exports continue to break ; 2) after the market attention on the subject of spent fuel is low, and the enormous market potential of spent fuel will eventually lead to financial concerns, then the valuation premium is expected to expand; 3) If the future of A shares switched from the outflow of funds to the stock of game, then about to break out of the nuclear power industry funds will become the focus of concern, nuclear power is expected to become the subject of high-quality construction market in the stock of game highlights. We believe that in the short term is still a good time to layout positions, taking into account the short-term A-share funds overall environmental stability to be confirmed, temporarily still maintain the company “overweight” rating, to be confirmed after the release of large environmental risks for further increase.

Integrated into electronic : strong growth in the main business transformation and distribution, energy internet layout Weiweitaiguan

Category: Research institutions: Ping An Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Yu Bing Date: 2015-09-21

Performance solid growth, expense control flat: During the reporting period, the company achieved revenues of 407 million yuan, an increase of 33.14%; attributable to shareholders of listed companies net profit 020 million yuan, an increase of 15.31%; fee rate of 32.8 percent during the company, unchanged compared with last year, of which financial expense ratio increased 0.98 percentage points, mainly due to higher interest expenses of bank loans.

Transformation and distribution have been strong primary industry, utilities continue to develop: During the reporting period, the State Grid Corporation of bidding and batch number has declined, tender situation continued centralization, the company seize the national network set to recruit foreign market opportunities and industry the new contract amount of 518 million yuan. 1H15 company substations / distribution of electricity business to achieve revenue 1.38 / 163 million yuan, respectively, an increase of 47.0% / 69.5%, gross profit margin of 40.42% / 36.91%, an increase of 5.89 / -1.98 percentage points. Under the overall investment in the grid field in the first half stage presentation sluggish situation, the company is still the main industry transformation and distribution to achieve rapid growth, market share continued to increase. Public utilities, the company successfully develop Wuhan, Chongqing and other urban water market, market holdings intelligent remote meter break 3 million, the market share ranking first; smart gas solution has been to provide one-stop service for gas customers.

Energy Internet more arrows shot, Zhanyi military field: the report period, the Company together with China Mobile, Lenovo Group to build together the wisdom of energy on public service cloud platform line, becoming the first regional (Shandong Province) Smart Energy Public Service Cloud platform, the platform now has access to cover gas, water, energy and other industrial sectors over 26,000 points of data; collaboration with Intel, Shandong Union City, expanding energy Internet, smart city integrated service operational areas; invest 4,116 million acquisition of Fujian Austria 70% of the shares through a step wins, wins Austrian Mai commitment of 15 to 17 years is not less than the net profit after deduction of non-respectively 0.1 / 0.13 / 017 million yuan, to further improve the urban distribution network operations; have set up the plot into energy, integrated into software company, involved in the establishment of one billion yuan of new energy industry guide funds, short-term and Guangxi Guidong Electric Power DSM micro-grid applications in cooperation, but also because of the change in the situation should be changed under the new situation electricity. Military field, the company set up military cooperation with Beijing long buyout funds; invest 30 million yuan to acquire a 30% stake in Rio Ningbo resources, in order to enter the ultrafine metal powder-based material 3D printing market.

Profit forecasts and ratings: the company expects EPS of 15 to 16 years 0.52,0.78 yuan, corresponding to August 28 closing price of PE were 33.9,22.6 times, we are optimistic about the company’s first-mover advantage and military fields in the energy field of the Internet to expand outreach , to maintain “recommended” rating.

Risk Warning: electricity reform program is lower than expected risk; military business development slow.

Weihai Guangtai : fourth-quarter results would speed; military / civilian UAV leading professional benefit civil-military integration, general aviation

Category: Research institutions: China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Wang Huajun Date: 2015-10-19

1. Event.

The company issued three quarterly, the first three quarters of 2015 to achieve revenue 908 million yuan, an increase of 29.52%, net profit of 98.8057 million yuan, an increase of 33.92%, EPS of 0.30 yuan.

2. Our analysis and judgment.

(A) Increasing profitability, performance will be further accelerated.

Soon the company mid-year report the first three quarters, an increase of 20% -50%, and the actual results in line with our expectations. Enhance the company’s gross margin and net margin were up 1.1pct, 0.9pct, profitability continued to rise.

Since Yingkou new Eagle and sheet effects, the company’s third quarter alone, revenue and performance year respectively 73% and 60% longer. Soon the company full-year results up 40% -80%, reaching 156 million -2 billion, calculated accordingly, the fourth quarter alone, results need to reach 56.76 million yuan -1.01 billion yuan, an increase of 52% -171%, performance will be further accelerated.

(B) The proposed acquisition of the whole of China era, is expected to create “UAV first unit.”

The company previously announced intends to raise not more than 540 million yuan for the acquisition, the increase of the whole era and put UAVs China (1.5 billion) and to supplement working capital, capital increase is completed the company will have a 69.34% stake in the whole of China era.

China Times is the first full-UAV R & D, production and sales and service integration of private enterprises, the main products include fixed wing, helicopter, multi-rotor and other military and civilian UAV and UAV applications, in # 1 of UAV technology invention patent applicant in the main office, after two universities nationwide.

Full Hua era in the field of application services mainly include police, fire, police, marine maritime, electricity, Tianjin TV and other sectors, has been invited as the only private enterprise involved in the PLA at the “Four Seas armed forces’ military exercises, and in August 2015 to participate in “8.12” Shaanxi Sanyo landslides survey relief efforts.

The acquisition agreement, if the whole of China era in actual net profit is higher than the commitment period, total net profit of 92.21 million yuan commitment, then over 50% of the net profit will be used to reward the whole China era, management and staff . Expected 2016 net profit is expected to reach full Hua era 1500-2000 yuan, 2015–2018 consecutive year performance is expected to double the growth.

The company November 28, 2014 with a unit signed a “series UAS development and cooperation agreement,” now have a strong business strength in military UAV. We believe that this acquisition will bring the whole China Times significant industrial chain, market and customer synergies, particularly in the era of all-China military UAV military part of the company’s existing business will bring promoted. After this offering, the company will enter the UAV industry, military business will rapidly development, the company is expected to become a military / civilian professional UAVs leading enterprises, leading to standard consumer UAVs “Dajiang Innovation” (according to media reported Dajiang Innovation’s market capitalization exceeded $ 8 billion).

(C) Military UAV / military integration scarce subject, the rapid development.

Companies series of unmanned aerial vehicles, UAVs primarily for high-speed military supplier, the company is the subject of civil-military integration. UAV aircraft is the future trend, according to planning future fighter United States, Israel, the future will be more than manned aircraft drones. We estimate that over the next 15 years China military UAV market demand for nearly 200 billion yuan, the needs of the civilian professional UAVs over 100 billion yuan, civilian consumer UAVs (domestic demand) over 30 billion yuan.

Domestic listed companies involved in military UAV development business has Hongdu Aviation , Zongshen , Loncin General , Shandong Mining Machinery , Industries and other listed companies have begun to involve unmanned aircraft business, but clearly involves military UAV rarely. In addition, there is only the beginning of many listed companies involved in UAV, some companies just developed only 1-2 prototypes started testing. The company is very scarce military UAV subject, age and the proposed acquisition of the whole of China is the industrialization of the UAV giant, is the quality subject has a production capacity of UAVs.

The company has hired former Xi’an Aircraft International, the aircraft fly through, the aircraft heavy machine Mengxiang Kai, chairman of the independent directors, and Mengxiang Kai has a wealth of experience in the aerospace, military business. We judge the company UAVs, especially the rapid development of the future military UAV business.

(Iv) The inclusion in the defense industry sector MIC Association, is expected to continue over the military expected.

July 7, 2015, the China Association of listed companies to publish a list of the military committee of the Association of National Defence on the military sector, Weihai Guangtai selected. 2014 military company sales income reached 164 million yuan, representing a substantial increase of 88%. Meng Yan, general manager of the State Council special allowance granted in recent years undertaken 12 national projects, military projects 10, presided over the development of a number of products to fill the domestic and international blank. Military aspects of the company actively participate in the development of forward-looking volume, high-value new project, there are several projects have been recognized; some of the key research projects achieved initial results, at the same time to focus on opening up new markets and achieved good development . We determine the company’s future military development will exceed market expectations, bringing double the performance of the valuation increase.

3. Investment advice.

The company has military and civilian UAV + Fusion + GA + smart home, such as multiple themes, military business development will exceed market expectations, benefiting shipping industry development. We determine the company’s future in the military (not just military UAV), fire-fighting equipment in the field continue to overweight, through independent research and development, mergers and acquisitions and other measures to strengthen the company’s position and influence in the fire-fighting equipment, military field; Yingkou new Eagle results will exceed expectations.

Does not consider the non-public issuance matters, is expected to 15 – 17-year pro forma EPS of 0.63 / 0.82 / 1.06 yuan, PE is 49/38/29 times; consider this non-public offering of matter (according to 30 yuan issuance price estimates), is expected to 15 – 17-year pro forma EPS of 0.61 / 0.84 / 1.10 yuan, PE is 50/37/28 times, has raised the potential for future performance, the recommended duration.

Risk Warning: shipping policy than expected, military business development than expected, lower than expected industry consolidation.

Hite high : a certain type of engine project won the “National Defense Science and Technology Progress Award” award, the depth of integration of military and civilian benefit

Category: Research institutions: China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Wang Huajun Date: 2015-10-14

Investment Highlights

1. Event

Company announcement “a certain type of engine engineering” won Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People’s Republic of China, “National Defense Science and Technology Progress Award” rating for the first prize winner.

2. Our analysis and judgment

(A) Eligible for the “National Defense Science and Technology Progress Award” award

National Defense Science and Technology Progress Award is to reward outstanding contributions in the promotion of scientific and technological progress in the defense units and individuals, to encourage independent innovation, promote the development of national defense modernization and the national economy.

The company’s award-winning project “a certain type of engine project,” the company is in the depth of integration of military and civilian weapons and their supporting product research, production, testing and related work in the scientific and technological achievements. The winning project is the company’s constant pursuit of technological innovation achievements, the company has reflected a high level of technological innovation capability.

(B) Aviation Development: Aircraft engine and control system, the business continued to force helicopter winch

The company has been a traditional aviation maintenance business aviation technical services to an integrated enterprise strategic shift since 2012 air power control system, and the development of the core business to take off, the performance of high growth into the fast lane. The company aeronautical military (mainly for helicopter-related) results accounted for about 60%. The company’s largest customer sales in 2014 amounted to 187 million yuan, mainly for us to judge the development of core military business, revenue accounting for close to 40%.

Aviation new technology development, and manufacturing business segment has formed mass production, a variety of new models in the research, as well as a plurality of pre-research project to comprehensively promote good situation. Certain air power control system is mass production; development work in other multi-model air power control system project is an orderly way; and can meet the needs of multi-use helicopter electric rescue hoist and oxygen systems development project is about to enter flight test phase.

Aviation power core control system as the core of military, technical content and high barriers. According to the company 2014 annual report, the current aviation new technology development, and manufacturing business has become an important business segment for the formation of both mass production, there are a variety of new models in the study, and there are more than a good pre-research project research and production situation.

Currently, the company has successfully developed the technical foundation for a model project on the engine power transfer, carried out on “a new air power control system development and manufacturing projects,” three new models (401,402,403) air power control system derived from research and development.

According to the company announcement, the power control system are the main components of aircraft engines, an essential part of belonging to the whole industry chain, accounting for about 10% -20% of the overall value of the engine. Benefit from the growth of the domestic aviation engine market, power control system market will exhibit steady growth. In addition, the development of civil aviation engine market, military and civilian areas of the market and gradually expand overseas markets for air power control industry will also have some role in promoting.

(Iii) Chip project involves national defense information security, strategic significance

Ltd. The company invested 555 million yuan to acquire a stake in Chengdu-chia stone technology and capital increase, after the transaction is completed, holders of its 52.91% stake. Ka Technology has independently developed an international leading level of the third generation of semiconductor integrated circuit technology from abroad and the second generation of semiconductor integrated circuit technology, which will be put into operation to become the first 6-inch second-generation / third generation The semiconductor integrated circuit production lines, can effectively grasp the market demand, to fill gaps in the market, the market prospect is broad. As a former state-controlled national strategy of information industry companies, this holding company Ka stone technology into high-end chip design industry, is holding a model of mixed ownership private cases.

Hite has been with CLP Section 29 signed a “strategic cooperation letter of intent,” the company and CLP Section 29 will Airborne and testing equipment joint project, development, joint production, among others. The two sides will carry out in-depth cooperation with the other priority.

CLP Section 29 is the earliest establishment, specializing in electronic warfare technology research, a class of the National Institute of Systems Engineering equipment model development and production, over the years been responsible for the national key projects, major basic national, national security and other major engineering tasks, to design and development and production land, sea, air, space, playing a variety of platforms and other electronic information systems equipment. CLP Section 29 and Section 14 (Glarun Technology largest shareholder), CLP Section 38 (Create Electronics major shareholder) par. Hite Holdings Ka by entering the high-end scientific and technological research in the field of semiconductor integrated circuit chip, we determine the Ka stone technology products will be mainly used in the early 29 high-end electronic equipment, the “Made in China 2025” in the field of next-generation IT focus on the development of integrated circuits and special equipment, national defense information related to security, with a high strategic position and importance; market prospects for the future.

Jia Shi registered capital of 1.049 billion yuan of Science and Technology, located in Chengdu Shuangliu County, West Southern Airport Economic Zone within the networking industry park; Hite and four Electronic (29 wholly-owned subsidiaries, the parent company of 29 civilian industry, the Ministry of satellite navigation application standards working group members) shares accounted for 52.91%, 36.61% respectively. Hite high in the holding position, the project is the central enterprises and private enterprises (military enterprises) mixed ownership model in private holdings.

According to “Chengdu Jia Shi Technology Co., Ltd. 6-inch second-generation / third generation of semiconductor integrated circuit chip production line project environmental impact report” The total investment of 2.092 billion yuan. Sichuan Provincial Economic and Information Technology Commission of Sichuan Province has put this project as a strategic emerging industries to support the project.

High power electronic applications Ka-Technology 6-inch second-generation / third generation of semiconductor integrated circuit chips used in microwave and millimeter wave frequencies sophisticated electronic equipment, military applications and motor drive, a wireless communication base stations, high frequency satellite communications, smart phones and wireless communications. Ka Technology For details, see Annex.

(Iv) Common shares of established ocean, explore navigable mixed ownership

Through subsidiaries Hai Teya beauty and Kunmingfeian to its own funds invested 124 million yuan shares of Ocean General Aviation Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Universal Ocean”), acquired 31% stake in GM Ocean. Ocean General business scope covers all types of general aviation services according to flight merchant training, aircraft rental hosting, operations and other shareholders except the United States and Kunmingfeian 海特亚, but also including Chang Fei AVIC Jiangxi Kevin technology, Jiangxi Intertek Navigation, Central Asia Property Group and Jiangxi military Sibo general aviation services. Under the agreement, General Board of the ocean by the seven directors, 海特亚 beauty and Kunmingfeian will each nominate a director; in addition, ocean common financial officer will recommend 海特亚 United States.

Further progress in the establishment of the ocean common shares of the company in the general aviation sector of a powerful exploration of mixed ownership, the company is also the depth of integration of military and civilian. Each ocean common shareholders have good industry resources and financial strength, will effectively play their respective advantages in resources, and promote the sound development of ocean common. Meanwhile, the company further deepen the shipping industry layout, the company will optimize aviation industry chain, improve profitability, and expand the company’s shipping industry development.

(V) Aviation Maintenance: large aircraft machine overhaul, Jet / helicopter / engine maintenance Breakthrough

The company’s traditional aviation maintenance business is mainly airborne equipment, two turboshaft engine maintenance business, a leading domestic position. In 2014, the company aviation maintenance business development in both depth and breadth directions were achieved significant results, business scope covers transport aircraft, general aviation aircraft, and helicopters machine maintenance, engine maintenance and Attachment maintenance and technical services.

Tianjin Hite As the first private trunk aircraft overhaul the whole platform (previously domestic-led joint venture with foreign capital), has completed the first phase of the project. The company Tianjin base two hangars have been put into operation, can repair 2-3 frame A320 / B737 series aircraft and three executive jets. January 2015, Tianjin Hite successfully completed Juneyao Airlines B-9978 & B-9957 two A320 family aircraft scheduled inspection and maintenance work for the first time. The company has made CAAC issued by Airbus A320 aircraft 4C inspection maintenance license, is actively apply for A320 aircraft to CAAC 8C inspection maintenance license.

Tianjin base future Phase II, Phase III project after completion, is expected to form 5 hangar, can be nine A320 / B737 aircraft, four executive jets, two wide-body aircraft (B747 / B777, etc.) while the depth of the regular inspection business, will become the domestic large-scale, improve the supporting facilities of third party aircraft maintenance base.

In addition, the company shares of the company, Sichuan Aircraft Maintenance Engineering Company Limited 2015 will achieve the scale of production and profit. Company and Sichuan Airlines Group, Hong Kong Aircraft Engineering Co., Taikoo (Xiamen) Aircraft Engineering Co., Ltd. joint venture in Sichuan Aircraft Maintenance Engineering Co., Ltd., is specialized in domestic and modification of Airbus aircraft overhaul base. The company is its second largest shareholder, with the completion of the second phase of investment in 2015 will achieve the scale of production and profit.

We determine the future of the company will obtain a large machine repair business development (some models of large aircraft overhaul the whole of about 80 million yuan, aviation maintenance business is usually more than 50% gross margin).

On the aviation maintenance breadth, companies involved in many types of aircraft business aircraft, helicopters, aircraft engines, APU, and many more equipment maintenance.

(1) business jet maintenance: Tianjin should 捷海特 General Aviation Services Limited is a company with the world’s third largest business jet service providers Rui Shiyi, Czech Republic, a joint venture specializing in general aviation services company, after the formal operation in 2014, it has completed 64 sorties regional aircraft, business jets scheduled inspection maintenance and line maintenance tasks.

(2) Helicopter maintenance: base is located in Tianjin, Tianjin Xiangyu Aviation Maintenance Engineering Co., Ltd. is a company approved by the China Civil Aviation specializes in the overhaul of Mi-17 series helicopters. Tianjin Xiangyu will resume operations in 2015, will work with new partners era wing day the company increased the intensity of cooperation, give full play to its advantages in resources in the field of Russian Helicopters, will resume expanding rice series helicopters and helicopter maintenance card production capacity and actively expand nine straight, straight eight, EC-135 helicopter maintenance capability and so on.

(3) aircraft engines, auxiliary power units (APU) repair: steady growth, in 2014 nearly complete overhaul and testing work station engines and auxiliary power unit, and continue to promote the aviation engine maintenance capacity-building efforts, the company has carried out three The new model aero engine maintenance capacity development work. As national ministries approved aero engine maintenance base, the company has built, including the United States GE, SAFRAN, Pratt & Whitney Canada, the United States HONEYWELL, PBS and other Czech factory production seven series of more than 20 types of engines and auxiliary power units (APU) repair capacity, is authorized Czech PBS overhaul base; Pratt & Whitney Canada has been calibrated integrated engine test stand, according to the United States has HONEYWELL, US Hansheng standard construction of an auxiliary engine test stand, for direct -8, straight -9 straight -19, -171 meters, transport -12 to provide engine repair and modernization, for B737, -171 meters to provide auxiliary engine maintenance.

(F) To enter the aircraft dismantling, huge market potential in the aircraft market

The first half of 2015, Tianjin Hite foreign aircraft undertook the first aircraft dismantling work in Tianjin. The proposed dismantling of the aircraft for the Beijing Ji’an aviation asset management company to buy from abroad, 27-year-old machine B767 aircraft, aircraft parts will be renovated after the removal and re-use, completion time of three months. July 6, the aircraft parking bays at the handover ceremony.

Tianjin Hite Aircraft Engineering Company is mainly engaged in large aircraft, business jets depth overhaul of the whole business, the company is a large aircraft carrier machine repair business; the whole overhaul of large aircraft has been eligible for qualification in November 2014 opened. After the dismantling of the task to carry out marking the company’s formal entry into the aircraft market, is another milestone in Tianjin Hite made following the overhaul of civil aircraft machine, and to prepare for helicopter maintenance business jet overhaul after qualification. We believe the future of Tianjin Hite repair business will further diversify the company to large aircraft maintenance strategy to upgrade the machine will steadily fall.

The rapid development of the air transport industry today, the disposal of retired aircraft have become increasingly prominent. It is understood that, because there is no professional dismantling base, China’s retired aircraft dismantling basically have to dispose of the United States. According to some media reports, in the course of our aircraft fly more than 200 aircraft, each year the number of imported 300 increments; 80-100 aircraft each year about retired aircraft, the number of aircraft will be retired after increasing every year. If you take into account overseas aircraft dismantling market, the market bigger.

According to media reports, in the international aviation market, the recycling of used parts is a common pattern, in general, the total price of $ 50 million an aircraft, to use the term, the recovery rate is one tenth, i.e. about $ 5 million after dismantling into parts market, may sell $ 10 million. More importantly, driving around value, such as logistics, maintenance, etc., will create 10 times to 20 times the value of the enterprise.

Dismantling aircraft aviation materials can increase, decrease pressure Spare Parts, resulting in greater economic benefits. China does not rule out the future of the world’s aircraft dismantling, material trading base, aircraft dismantling, after the aircraft market has great potential.

(Vii) Aviation Training: Formation of Kunming, Singapore, Tianjin, three major aviation training base layout

Aviation Training business layout in Kunming, Singapore, Tianjin and three aviation training base. In many fields (air transport, general aviation), many types of aircraft (trunk aircraft, general aviation aircraft, helicopters) covering domestic and foreign aviation training market.

Singapore base by the end of 2014 the company has been completed, the first two simulators have been installed tuning is completed, will be officially put into operation in 2015, will expand in Southeast Asia and West Asia aviation training market. Singapore Airlines is the company’s practice training base of high-quality results “along the way” of the national strategy, the domestic aviation industry is also an important foreign investment projects, the company has completed initial training in the aviation market at home and overseas distribution, the company in the aviation training market competitiveness and possession rate will further enhance the overall strength will be enhanced.

In 2014 the company invested in the construction of Tianjin Free Trade Zone in Tianjin Airport flight safety, layout NORTH aviation training market, upon completion, will have 7-10 analog machines running capacity (including A320, B737 and EC-135 helicopter simulator class D), wherein EC- 135 Level D helicopter simulator is the model of China’s first high-level simulator.

Aviation Training business currently operates a total of five Kunmingfeian simulator, including two A320 Level D flight simulator, three B737 aircraft FFS. The company Singapore base 2 analog machines already in place, there is a base station in Kunming, Tianjin base EC-135 helicopter simulation machine 1 on the way in which the acquisition is expected four new contribution to the performance simulator will begin in 2015. Singapore Airlines training base company plans to invest 580 million yuan, to June 2014 has invested 120 million yuan. January 2015, Hite Singapore flight training center B737-800W and two A320-200 full flight simulator passed the China Civil Aviation Administration and the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore initial identification.

The future of the company will also expand aviation training business from the civil aviation field to the helicopter. In June 2013, the company announced the purchase EC-135 helicopter flight simulators and ancillary equipment, a total price of not more than 10 million euros, has signed a contract to purchase intent. The company helicopter training business will be placed Tianjin base.

We determine the number of companies planning simulator future can reach the size of 20 units (about six Kunming, Singapore 6 or so, Tianjin 7-10 units). If each simulator operating 20 hours per day, according to 3000 yuan (or US $ 400-500 / hour) calculated per hour, according to the utilization rate of around 80%, the income of each simulator nearly 18 million yuan, the company Aviation Training gross margin of around 50%.

Aviation training future business if it reaches 20 analog machines, only simulator aviation training services revenue (excluding crew training and other services) to reach 360 million yuan.

(Viii) The aviation finance lease: aircraft machine, engine, flight equipment financing and leasing business is about to break

The company will cover the future of the aviation leasing business machine large aircraft, engines, aircraft timber leasing business.

In 2013 the company funded the establishment of Sichuan Hite Leasing Co., Ltd., began to get involved in aircraft leasing services. July 2014, the company was approved by the Ministry of Commerce, State Administration of Taxation of the National Twelfth domestic financial leasing pilot enterprises, will help the company to optimize the business aviation service business model to achieve diversified development of the aviation industry, and the integration of resources, to Integrated development of aviation technology services direction, to achieve the purpose to promote the company’s main business aviation development. Financial leasing company Aviation Services business is advancing according to plan, the whole aircraft, engines, and aircraft leasing business structure material formed.

(Ix) To raise 1.66 billion ECU to develop new air power and other main industry

The company has completed the set by the matter, the additional price of 20 yuan, issued a total of 8282 shares, the total funds raised 1.66 billion yuan, and the new shares were listed on September 2. The company will expand the air power control system development capabilities.

Fund-raising project of this issue is “Tianjin Hite aircraft maintenance base on the 2nd maintenance hangar construction project,” “new air power control system development and manufacturing projects,” “new aviation engine repair technology development and industrialization projects” “Tianjin Aviation Flight Safety training base construction project” and “add liquidity.”

3. Investment Advice

Expected 15–17 years EPS of 0.16 / 0.36 / 0.56 yuan, PE is 114/51/33 times the expected performance of the company next year after the high-speed growth. The company has more than 50 percent of military accounting, valuation of the company will be the next country Rui Technology, Create Electronics, Aviation moving control , Naoto shares close; maintain “recommended” rating.

Risk Warning: military delivery times of uncertainty, and the new model helicopter winch ECU production time of uncertainty, the issuance of equity dilution thickening performance, integration risk.

Tianqi shares : M Floor, automotive after-market official force

Category: Research institutions: GF Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Luo Libo, Liu Zhijun date: 2015-10-26

The company issued a notice by the China Securities Regulatory Commission mergers and acquisitions of listed companies audit committee review, the company issued shares to buy assets and raise matching funds by connected transaction matters unconditional.

M implement dismantling the whole industry chain layout, automotive after-market official force. The acquisition of 100% stake in Yichang Dili and recovered 66.5% stake in Ningbo officially landed the company in the car dismantling market segment, “the three recycling centers + two + two operators dismantling center platform,” the whole industry chain layout began to take shape, The acquisition landing next year, the three companies will collectively dismantling plate and table, consider the performance commitment and their stake next year (Yichang Lidi net profit of 47 million yuan next year commitment, holding 100%; Suzhou regeneration promised 20 million yuan ; holding 70% recovery of about 20 million yuan in Ningbo, holding 66.5%), with the ability to automate dismantling strengthened after the market next year will form a significant support on performance.

Yellow car out of standard policies, accelerate the dismantling of the window period to come. As of September, the national yellow car out of the amount of 820,000, less than expected. Currently the ministry has increased the policy efforts of the yellow car out, environmental protection and other five departments jointly issued a document to promote the yellow car out of the policy, the implementation of monthly briefings phase-out system. Emission vehicles will be phased out in the next 1–2 years to accelerate the dismantling of scrap car recycling volume will usher in short-term peak.

Main business sufficient orders, next year the main industry is expected to strongly upward. The company’s main business of automotive logistics automation equipment business is currently sufficient orders in hand, up more than 30%, consider the confirmation period and base year, the main industry is expected next year the real positive growth. Coupled with the company automated warehousing business breakthroughs in the electricity business, medicine, cold chain and other areas next year, the main industry is expected to strongly upward.

Investment suggestion: We forecast the company 2015–2017 annual revenues and 2,882 one million yuan for the 1, 999, 2,573, EPS, respectively 0.21, 0.37 and 0.46 yuan. The company has in the field of automotive logistics automation equipment outstanding advantages, has a good industrial layout in intelligent storage systems and vehicle dismantling market, combined with performance and valuation, we maintain the company a “buy” rating.

Risk Warning: automotive automation equipment requirements that affect car sales and investment uncertainty; yellow car out of policy implementation is uncertain; scrap price fluctuations affect profits for dismantling operations.

Xiamen Engineering shares : seize all the way along the core area, the Air shares into the military

Category: Research institutions: State Securities Corp. researcher: After Li Yao Date: 2015-04-08

Event.

Vision and action along the way files released, infrastructure interconnection boot priority. Files will determine Fujian and Xinjiang as the core area of ​​the Maritime Silk Road between Asia and Europe, Guangxi and Yunnan respectively and radiation portal area. The same period, the Asian investment bank continued to expand around and under the Boao Forum for Asia held dual catalysis, “along the way” continue to strengthen the concept of regional development.

The evening of March 30, the central bank, the Ministry of Housing, Banking Regulatory Commission jointly issued “on the individual housing loan policy issues related to notice”, to improve the demand for individual housing loans lowered the down payment ratio to not less than 40%. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance and State Administration of Taxation jointly issued “on the adjustment of individual housing transfer business tax policy notice”, significant debt relief for part qualified housing foreign sales business tax levy. With the real estate policy followed deregulation, housing needs to improve usher in a major positive.

Company performance forecast 2014 annual operating results compared with last year, there will be profitable, is expected to achieve attributable to shareholders of listed companies net profit of zero to $ 10 million; total annual government subsidy received by the Company 2014 Total 47,648.56 ten thousand yuan , resulting in a larger increase in operating income.

Comment.

The core area of the Maritime Silk Road construction machinery enterprises, overseas assembly plant was built to cater to the area all the way: focus on planning the direction of the Maritime Silk Road in the 21st century is over from the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean coastal ports in China, extending to Europe, and over the South China Sea to China’s coastal ports South Pacific . The Fujian and Xinjiang have been identified for the 21st century to build the core area of the Maritime Silk Road. Xiamen regional obvious advantages, Xiamen Engineering shares all the way along the core area is located in Xiamen, Fujian Province, currently accounting for 15 percent of export business. The company has established assembly plants in Pakistan, in order to meet all the way along and Fujian FTA construction has laid a good foundation engineering machinery and equipment exports preferred targets.

Guangdong, Fujian and Tianjin free trade zone by the overall scheme, the Xiamen Municipal SASAC key support: March 24, the CPC Central Committee General Secretary Xi Jinping hosted a Politburo meeting by Guangdong, Tianjin, Fujian pilot zones free trade overall program, further Shanghai Free Trade Experimental Area deepen reform and opening up program. FTA second quarter starting gun fired, Fujian FTA much attention at home and abroad, the two programs are expected to be available in the near future official text, FTA listing has officially entered the countdown stage. Xiamen, Xiamen Engineering shares is focused on supporting the manufacturing enterprises SASAC, terms of scale, the company is currently in the second-tier position in the industry, the company’s main products accounted for 60% of revenue loader in the domestic market share of about 16%, ranking the first three levels of the industry. 2010 nine Chinese construction machinery manufacturers, including companies into the top 50 global construction machinery.

AVIC shares, civilian integration model: the aircraft industry with engineering machinery products the core components of hydraulic technology research and development capabilities, AVIC shares Xiamen Engineering shares, in its capacity as the industrial development platform, with its R & D strength, enhance the technological level of construction machinery products extending “Four Wheels” and other key parts of construction machinery industry, but to build aviation maintenance and mechanical base, into military areas greatly enhance the company in the domestic construction machinery core competitiveness. The company is currently doing property transfer, the actual control may become more of AVIC, AVIC systems become the model of civil-military integration. AVIC’s move will strengthen the company’s military background, the general secretary in learning to adapt to the requirements of its mission to accelerate the construction requirements of the equipment system backdrop, company valuation is expected to improve.

Deregulation to promote real estate investment pick up, looking forward to 2015 results appear reversed: investments in infrastructure, equipment investment, mainly in construction machinery. Because of China’s fixed asset investment, especially real estate investment growth slowed, leading to lower purchasing power cranes, excavators, loaders and other construction machinery major products continued to decline, the company’s performance was in a slump. The company’s annual results notice said the company in 2014 net profit compared with a year earlier appeared a turnaround, but mainly from the government subsidy of 476.48 million yuan operating income, results did not show a fundamental improvement.

With the real estate policy followed deregulation, housing needs to improve usher in a major positive. Liberalization of real estate control policies will help real estate new projects starts to rise, thereby stimulating market demand gradually pick up equipment. Judging from construction machinery is expected to benefit from the area all the way to help digest excess capacity and double positive recovery in the domestic real estate investment is expected to decline in equipment sales will tend to narrow this year, industry continues to inventory deleveraging situation also will be in the second quarter improved significantly. We look forward to the construction machinery industry in the second and third quarter results can show substantial reversal.

Looking ahead a few years, the construction machinery industry or market holdings are still a large amount of excess capacity, competition and other issues, the pattern of market reshuffle and survival of the fittest is difficult to avoid. Some enterprises will fully benefit “along the way”, in a favorable position in the competitive landscape changes. The company’s main business market share among the industry forefront loaders, large-scale effects appear. With infrastructure investment is expected to pick up at home and abroad, the company’s main business sales will follow the construction machinery market demand overall stabilized.

Investment advice.

We were the first company earnings forecasts net profit forecast 2015/2016 attributable to the parent company 0.89,2.11 one hundred million yuan, EPS were 0.09,0.22 yuan (after taking into account dilution), to give a “buy” rating, target price of the year 17.7 yuan.

Wisesoft Daily News Review: The image of new business sales, promote the growth of diversified development

Category: Research institutions: Sealand Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Generation Pengju Date: 2015-08-28

Event: newspaper publishing company, achieved total revenue of 82.572 million yuan, representing an increase of 22.30 percent over the same period last year; to achieve operating profit of 15.018 million yuan, representing an increase of 65.79 percent over the same period last year. 2015 January-September attributable to shareholders of listed company’s net profit change interval 1840.3 to 22,084,000 yuan.

Earnings growth in line with expectations and look forward to the military aviation tube large single floor. Company after deduction of non-net profit rose 79.8%. In the context of actively promoting new products, management fees and cost of sales did not grow significantly. Company revenue and profit growth in line with a quarterly forecast. ATC automation project gross margin over 48%. Full-year net profit growth is expected to up to 500%, mainly determined bid 238 million in 2013 ATC automation project landing. Based on past experience of military tenders, we believe that successful project for two years, this year the possibility of large floor.

Diversified development, the image performance of the new product is expected to become the gearbox. 1, the new product controllers experience Level D flight simulator and flight simulator visual systems have sales or bid. With the domestic general aviation open and the rise of a huge domestic market space pilot training in the future. 2, large panoramic interactive experience systems has signed its first contract, using the company’s three-dimensional high-definition LED display, interactive panorama experience programs and a number of graphics technology, the future will be in the country to promote education and science sectors. 3, based on the integration of a new generation of panoramic video aerodrome activity intelligent monitoring and management systems are actively construction and sales. New company image classes with more than 65% of the high gross margins and broad market space, the future is expected to become a new source of power .

3D face recognition test is installed, future industrialization of infinite space. The adoption of Intel’s low-cost sensors, successfully developed the first set of three-dimensional face recognition system and shows in the 2015 Intel Developer Forum. The three-dimensional face recognition system to achieve significant cost reductions and greatly reduced volume. 3D face recognition technology company is different from the traditional two-dimensional recognition, unique technology advantages. The future will be like a three-dimensional face recognition fingerprint recognition, bar code and RFID identification technology, widely used in national defense, public safety, information security, financial payment security and other fields. Future based on national security considerations, the three-dimensional human face requires a full set of equipment and basic software localization. The company first entered the field and occupy technological advantage. The future, as market volume, three-dimensional recognition technology industry is expected to bring huge benefits.

Optimistic about the company’s future, to maintain “overweight” rating. The company has high barriers to high-margin core business of ATC automation, performance and stable high growth. We are optimistic about the future of the company’s current diversified development. Key layout graphic image business, part of the new business gradually force. 3D face recognition enormous future industrial space. 2015 ~ 2017 EPS of 0.33, 0.54, 0.79 yuan, the corresponding PE of 82, 50, 35 times, to maintain “overweight” rating.

Risk Warning: the company’s new products do not reach the expected air traffic control projects delayed or discontinued.

Mastery Power : Boots final landing, to the transition of military information technology and automation, the future will become the core of the military company

Category: Research institutions: Shun Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Zourun Fang, Wangshu Wei Date: 2015-04-22

In line with expectations, first quarter net profit increased significantly.

The company in 2014 operating income of 1.052 billion yuan, an increase of 14.62%, net profit attributable to the parent company of -1659.5 million yuan, down 263%; EPS -0.1 yuan, results in line with expectations. Net profit substantially reduced, mainly due to the decline in gross margin and impairment losses on assets due.

The company in 2015 to achieve 175 million yuan in the first quarter, down 27.86%, net profit attributable to parent company 117 million yuan, an increase of 83.61 percent, in line with expectations.

Traditional main business profitability declined, 15 years is expected to bounce back.

The company in 2014 gross profit margin was 12.84%, compared with last year fell 2.4 percent, gross margin declined mainly due to the overall industry still faces overcapacity, lower prices.

Companies actively promote the traditional main industry upgrading efficiency through downsizing, adjust the product structure to enhance performance, while the new company Jiangsu 苏富松 mold factory, Jiangsu and pass Electric Co., have been successfully put into operation, a new industry to create new long-term growth, 15 Traditional main industry is expected to bounce back.

Full transition of military information technology and automation, will become the core of military companies.

The company continued to promote military information and intelligence equipment transformation. Has signed Weir made Shenzhen billion Information Technology Co. 60% stake in the letter of intent, to enter the radar and the information security market, such as the successful acquisition of the company will become the main platform for the development of military information technology; establishment of Tianjin-Dadar in Tianjin Science and Technology Co., In “artillery multifunction Maintenance Unit” and “light armored vehicle at the sudden rapid” two technology as a breakthrough into the army and armed police vehicle market, and as a major platform for the company’s development of military intelligence. The future of the company will continue to perform military information and intelligence core development strategies and technology integration through mergers and acquisitions and other means.

Recommendation: Buy -A investment rating, 6-month target price of 40 yuan. We expect the company in 2015 –2017 year EPS were 0.35,1,1.25 yuan, the company firmly transformation of military information technology and automation, will continue to promote transformation through mergers and acquisitions and other means.

Risk Warning: Transition not up to expectations, results have fallen sharply

Yaxing anchor : Leading global chain performance inflection point appeared, holding 1.2 billion in cash will actively open a second primary industry

Category: Research institutions: China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Wang Huajun, Chen Xianfan date: 2015-04-29

1. Event.

The company released 2014 annual and 2015 quarterly. In 2014 the company achieved revenues 1.528 billion yuan, an increase of 8.46%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies 29.88 million yuan, an increase of 47.34 million yuan, EPS of 0.06 yuan.Company bonus plan for every 10 shares 0.5 yuan increase by transferring 10 shares, cash dividends 0.50 yuan (including tax).

2015 first quarter the company achieved operating income of 415 million yuan, an increase of 8.46%, attributable to shareholders of listed company’s net profit of 30.83 million yuan, down 3.65%, EPS of 0.07 yuan.

2. Our analysis and judgment.

(A) Performance inflection point is now in line with expectations, sustained growth is guaranteed.

The company previously released 2014 annual results notice, actual results in line with expectations. Companies marine business income accounted enhance 4.6pct, along with continued growth in the company’s profitability, in 2015 first quarter consolidated gross margin reached 23.31%, the highest level in nearly four years, an upgrade 1.6pct.

The company plans to complete 2015 annual revenue of 1.65 billion. The company in 2014 to take orders 1.922 billion yuan, an increase of 6.6%, as of December 31, 2014 orders in hand the company 1.516 billion yuan, up 19.8 percent, the company in 2015 sustained growth performance is guaranteed.

(B) 海工系 mooring chain world-class, conquer the world’s five largest customers.

Company Hai Gongji mooring chain product structure upgrade, in 2014 gross profit margin increase 8.64pct.

In 2014 the company achieved Hai Gongji mooring system connector output of 2,000 tons in 2015 plans to increase production to 4000 tons; ultra-high-level R & D R6 mooring chain has entered the pilot phase; the company involved in the development of “ultra-deepwater semi-submersible drilling platform development and application “project won the 2014 annual national science and technology progress awards. The company is actively connected to the mooring system accessories extend outside member.

Company in the world’s top five oil companies have obtained the ocean four (France’s Total, Statoil, Royal Dutch Shell, Petrobras) supplier qualification, Mobil Oil also plans in May to inspect the company certification, the company in the field of mooring chains and attachments Marine Department has reached world-class level; marine equipment industry, the long-term to short-term pressure is good, the company will continue mooring chain business development, and further enhance the market share in the marine field.

(C) Cash on hand of nearly 12 billion, will be actively open a second main industry.

Currently nearly 1.2 billion yuan cash on hand. The company had purchased about 140,000 square meters of land, in addition to the company before the IPO equity investment projects 30,000 tons of ultra-high-strength remainder of the project R5 offshore mooring chain transformation projects, we judge still more abundant, with sufficient epitaxial conditions for development. The company clearly stated, “Will actively develop second primary industry, planned for the next two to three years to determine, in order to further enhance the company’s size and competitiveness.” We judge the company does not rule out a second extension of the main ways to develop the industry.

3. Investment advice.

The company expects 2015 will be 33.57 million yuan for bad debts reversal, 2015-2017 results will achieve rapid growth, performance flexibility, the future does not rule out the extensional development. 2015-2017 is expected EPS of 0.32 / 0.39 / 0.47 yuan, PE is 50/42/35 times. Excluding cash in hand after the company’s market capitalization is only 1.2 billion yuan 6.4 billion yuan, PB only 2.3 times, with good margin of safety, to maintain “recommended” rating. Risk factors: lower than expected recovery ship anchor chain; oil prices continued to fall; extensional development than expected.

Lijum shares : the proposed acquisition of Chengdu three military aircraft business continued to overweight, resumption of not less than 5 trading days, 286 million yuan holdings

Category: Research institutions: China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Wang Huajun Date: 2015-09-09

1. Event.

The company announced the proposed acquisition of Chengdu Sanhang Electrical Co., Ltd. (hereinafter: “Chengdu Sanhang”) of equity, the company stock since September 8 date for restoration.

According to the company prior to the announcement, the controlling shareholder, actual controller and its shareholders and other persons acting resumption of not less than 5 trading days, 286 million yuan holdings.

2. Our analysis and judgment.

(A) The proposed acquisition of Chengdu three aircraft, military operations continued overweight.

The proposed acquisition of Chengdu Sanhang main business includes the production of aerospace equipment, research and development, aviation aircraft external devices; have “military product quality system certification”, “three secret unit qualification certificate”, “weaponry research and production licenses card “,” equipment manufacturing units registration certificate “and other relevant qualifications required for the production and operation. The company’s aircraft hangar common project was included in 2014 in Chengdu strategic new product development projects subsidized project, the company also was recognized as 2015 Chengdu enterprise technology center.

According to the company announcement, Chengdu Sanhang year 2014 achieved total revenue of 072 million yuan, net profit of 027 million yuan, net profit margin reached 37.5%, strong profitability. The company has basically completed the preparatory work for Chengdu three aircraft acquisitions, ongoing negotiations on transaction programs to communicate with the Chengdu Sanhang shareholders. If the acquisition is successful, on the one hand it is expected to enhance the company’s overall profitability, on the other hand is expected to generate synergies with the previously announced acquisition of Dekun aviation for the company to bring new profit growth point.

(B) The resumption of not less than 5 trading days, 286 million yuan holdings.

According to the company prior to the announcement, the controlling shareholder, actual controller, chairman of Mr. He Yamin and concerted action, Vice Miss He Jia company intends to apply through the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, securities stock to resume trading within five days from the date of trading system by way of auction total holdings of the market value of not less than 250 million yuan of funds to buy company stock.

Shareholders, vice chairman and general manager of Mr. Wei Yong intends to resume trading from the date of the Company’s shares within five trading days the market value of holdings by way of auction by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange securities trading system of not less than 036 million yuan of funds to buy the company’s stock .

The three people currently holds 80.45% of total equity. According to maintaining the company’s share price stabilization program announcement, the above-mentioned three commitments: from July 7, 2015, within 12 months, no holdings of shares of shares held by beneficial monarch, not to transfer or entrust others to manage their holdings of shares Lijun shares.

(Iii) Sufficient cash on hand, will accelerate the transformation of the military, it is expected to become a model of civil-military integration.

The company previously announced will be 370 million yuan in cash to acquire 100% stake Dekun aviation. Dekun Airlines is one of the aircraft industry to fly the most important structural parts Waixiejiagong manufacturing enterprises; products used in many models of military aircraft, large transport aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, missiles, etc., and for the large passenger and cargo aircraft and domestic regional aircraft (ARJ project), China Commercial Aircraft C919 to provide ancillary products.

1.34 billion yuan in cash in hand, major shareholders and persons acting has 65% of the shares of listed companies, the company is expected to create an important platform for the integration of the military service. September 2014 the company announced the proposed shares tomorrow Aerospace (new research shares acquisition targets, supporting the well-known domestic aerospace parts manufacturer). We believe that the company locked the transformation of military areas, and the acquisition of the subject are very good.

We judge the rich companies to track project, the future is likely to continue to accelerate the transformation of the military field, with the acquisition of a larger scale, better performance potential military operations, civil-military integration will become a model.

(Iv) Energy saving equipment little giant, strong profitability.

The company for the cement, mining and grinding system leading enterprises, outstanding profitability, cash generation ability, consolidated gross profit margin for many years maintained at about 50%, net profit margin over 35% for many years. Company old business cement roller press market share ranking first in the world. New Business mines roller mill can reduce power consumption and metal consumption, significantly reducing water pollution, a key state to encourage the development of energy-saving and environmentally friendly products. Expected future mine roller mill will get better development.

3. Investment advice.

Does not consider the extension is expected to 15–17-year EPS of 0.36 / 0.39 / 0.40 yuan, PE is 71/66/64 times; consider Dekun aviation, expected 15 – 17-year pro forma EPS of 0.45 / 0.51 / 0.58 yuan, PE 57 / 50/45-fold. Valuation of the company is expected to move closer to the military unit (military unit 2015 nearly 80 times the average PE). We determine the company’s future will continue to overweight the military business, performance is expected to achieve a larger increase, valuations are expected to move closer to the military unit, to maintain recommended. Risk Warning: shrinking demand for cement equipment, mining and marketing progress than expected, the transition of military progress than expected.

Zongshen Power: the small loan business steadily, UAV production soon

Category: Research institutions: Joaquin Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Zhang Zhongjie Date: 2015-06-19

Investment Highlights

Motorcycle engine industry cyclical adjustment: in 2014 the company issued a motorcycle Mai machine business sales revenue 2.74 billion yuan, an increase of 1.68%, currently SMEs Mai machine business basic motorcycle made in low-profit status, large displacement three-wheeled motorcycle slight increase four-wheel vehicle market is starting Mai. Rural market is still able to maintain a large sales YingYing mold, it is estimated the company in 2015 revenue decline at around 5%. Electric powered car is the future direction of the transformation, in 2015 the trend better estimate sales will grow substantially.

General machinery business to maintain growth momentum: 2014 annual sales of 1.23 billion yuan of general machinery, up 30%, mainly due to increase the company’s export sales, small aircraft in the United States through the larger market, with the growth of the US natural gas production, electrically Mai forces unit as general machinery market is being nurturing. Clear development trend of this business, we expect growth in this business in 2015 more than 20%.

Small loan company business steadily: To take advantage of Zongshen Group and the Company on the downstream industry chain resources, while controlling risk, the company microfinance industry chain around 80% of business conduct, such as household pet Group receivables, in the back section before providing credit risk control. Follow the company also plans to gradually expand in small loans companies on the basis of factoring, P2P, equity investments, the future is expected to achieve 30 billion yuan YingYing mold around. At present, the business development of better, faster earnings growth, future business is expected to become one of the pillars of the four companies.

Sales service market model innovation: Left master company has 575 Direct, the joint venture does not store in the chain, the initial formation of a “service + spare parts sales” business model, take it as a basis, Jian use Lynx and Taobao Internet platform, active sales of all types of end products, in 2014 net profit rose 152%. The company is also trying to intervene car after-market services, not the Internet companies to open two stores in Chongqing, in order to point the online business is expected to quickly carry out.

UAV business will become a new growth point: The company does not Qingdao Wang rivers recently co-invested $ 50 million to establish Chongqing Zongshen Tianyi Aviation Technology Co., Ltd., which the company invested 3,350 ten thousand yuan accounted for 67% stake. The company is actively pushing Zhong Zong project the company’s production area location, production line layout, model selection, sales and service network construction and other related work. Is expected to be in September 2015 to achieve small batch production, the original shareholders of the company Qingdao Wang rivers commitment from 2015 to 2017 the company achieved net profit accumulated less than 132.5 million yuan Ji. Given the broad market prospects UAV business, the business is expected to become a new growth point.

Investment suggestion: We forecast 2015 –2017 company earnings per share were 0.41, 0.51 and 0.71 yuan. We obituary small loan business for the company in good shape, volume sales of UAV operations soon, the company thereby forming a new growth point performance, prospects. “Buy -A” investment rating, 6-month target price of 33.15 yuan, corresponding to 65 times 2016 PE.

Risk Warning: industry does not lead to changes in the company’s fundamentals Ji reach the expected results.

New research shares: Acquisition tomorrow Aerospace approved the text, into the rapid development of the new era

Category: Research institutions: Southwest Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: Pang Linlin Date: 2015-10-28

Performance Summary: 2015 third quarter, the company achieved operating income of 515.2 million, an increase of 12.44%, operating profit of 90.3 million, an increase of 3.58%, net profit of 85.5 million, an increase of 5.60%; earnings per share 0.095 yuan.

Used main business running smoothly. 2015 changed the agricultural subsidies continued growth, down 100 million yuan, the demand for agricultural products was significantly weaker, agricultural business critical. With excellent product quality, the company first three quarters of revenue growth of 12.44%. Gross margin for the first three quarters of the company 34.12%, down 4.33 percentage points, the expense ratio 14.95%, down 2.32 percentage points (mainly cost of sales rate fell 3.26 percentage points); sales margin of 16.46%, a slight decrease year on year 1.21 percentage points.

Merger reorganization approved by the Commission approval. 2015 companies active epitaxial mergers and acquisitions, the company issued shares and pay cash to buy Shifang City tomorrow Industry Co., Ltd. 100% stake in aerospace, currently the major asset restructuring has received China Securities Regulatory Commission Audit Committee mergers and acquisitions by 2015 October 26 approved by China Securities Regulatory Commission approval. After the completion of the reorganization, the company will become a farm, military dual main listed companies, and the rapid development in agricultural machinery, military two areas.

Tomorrow Aerospace is “people to join the army,” the best subject, there is a performance-than-expected capacity and power. 1. From the production point of view, all current production tomorrow aerospace investment value may reach 4 billion +; 2, from order point of view, with the acceleration of the main models fitted (military aircraft orders into the release), military orders from 2013–2014 years Trial gradually small batches, with high growth potential; 3, from the equipment capacity, the company has formed advanced, large-scale lead, and continues to expand; 4, net profit margin, the company’s gross profit margin remained stable There liters of situation, the financial costs the company after the acquisition of aerospace parts business will be lower than the current 11%, taking into account technical upgrade, orders, and production release of scale brought net profit margin is expected from the current less than 20% increased to more than 25%.

Earnings forecast and rating the following table: earnings forecast considering only farm the main industry. Tomorrow’s Aerospace 2015-2017 annual results for the deduction of non-commitment should reach 170 million yuan net profit (+55.96%), 2.4 million (+ 41.18%) and 400 million yuan (66.67%), the next three years compound annual growth rate of 55%, However, we believe the company than-expected performance in 2017 is very large probability estimate in 2017 is expected to reach 735 million yuan, three-year compound growth rate of over 86%.

Tomorrow, after the acquisition of the aerospace company, people join the army as a clear target, in large-scale development of the people expected to join the army background deserve high valuations, coupled with the re-acquisition of more specific expectations, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk Warning: agricultural machinery industry or continue to decline, tomorrow aerospace integration progress and performance or lower than expected and other risks.

Original Mandarin Chinese:

軍工行業12只概念股價值解析

 应流股份:铸技顶峰、核电蓝海

类别:公司研究 机构:中泰证券股份有限公司 研究员:笃慧,郭皓 日期:2015-10-08

中国核电远景:未来核电之所以好,是因为它不受国内传统经济周期制约,同时是行政力量未来要极力推动的事情。要达到2030年非化石能源占比20%的目标 ,届时核电装机规模需要1.5亿至2亿千瓦,即未来15年每年要建10到15个百万千瓦级的核电机组。这个建设强度是极大的,因为从1991年秦山核电站并网发电以来至今国内累计投运核电机组不过26台。保守预估目前至2020年底拟开建核电机组为30台,年均约6台,此外若内陆核电破冰(可能性大),则开工数量更多;

技术追赶、效率压制、海外份额扩张:无论是1995年的纺织品出口、2005年的机电产品出口,或是2015年的核电出口,其实本质上都是中国在技术达标后成本效率提升所带来的全球市场份额扩张。尽管在经济本质上没有太大区别,但是在技术上已经是飞跃式的发展。中国制造2005是中端制造业赶上世界潮流,中国制造2025则是高端制造业的赶超。世界核能协会估算2015-2030年间海外新建核电站在160座左右,投资额1.5万亿美元,市场空间巨大。从华龙一号的签单状况来看,中国技术对亚非拉国家吸引力明显,未来未来随着华龙一号的推广和CAP1400自主技术的成熟,中国核电在全球市场份额有望进一步提升;

核主泵泵壳——铸造业最高技术:应流于2014年即生产出国内首台CAP1400核一级不锈钢爆破阀阀体,继而又完成CAP1400核主泵泵壳国产化。泵壳是主泵乃至核岛的核心部件之一,制造难度极大,代表了目前世界铸造生产的最高技术。此前国内核电机组主泵泵壳一直由海外铸造厂垄断,应流实现进口替代后已进入批量生产阶段,成为目前三代核电机组主泵泵壳唯一国内供应商;

乏燃料与中子吸收材料市场广阔:中国核电发展的头重脚轻导致核电乏燃料后处理市场较核电站建设更为广阔,我们测算2015年国内乏燃料卸出量625吨,到2020年可增长至1450吨。全球市场更为庞大,2015年世界乏燃料卸出量估算在9442吨,是中国市场的15倍。中子吸收材料主要用在乏燃料贮运领域,燃料贮存水池格架和贮运容器中均需要设置中子吸收材料,预计自2016年起国内中子吸收材料需求将出现爆发式增长。应流联手工程物理研究院的产业化项目预计将在明年建成,届时配合乏燃料贮运容器的国产化,产品将快速占领国内市场。同时凭借国产设备性价比优势,产品有望进入15倍于国内市场的全球市场蓝海;

传统产品周期底、新业务空间大:应流传统业务盈利受油价波动影响,美国页岩气钻机数量剧降暗示油价周期底部来临,未来机会已然大于风险。而新业务核主泵泵壳、中子吸收材料、航空发动机/燃气轮机叶片等项目在受益于市场规模扩大的同时,进口替代将占领国内市场份额,而且具备打开海外市场的潜力,增长空间广阔。公司对新产品的业绩弹性好,基本面即将进入快速爬坡期;

趋势预判与投资建议:未来有利于公司股价的积极因素包括1)四季度核电行业催化剂众多,包括核电十三五规划、核电项目密集批复和启动、内陆核电破冰进展、核电出口继续突破等;2)此前市场对乏燃料题材关注度偏低,而乏燃料市场的巨大潜力终将会引起资金关注,届时估值溢价有望扩大;3)若未来A股从资金流出切换至存量博弈,那么即将爆发的核电行业必将成为资金重点关注对象,核电优质标的有望成为存量博弈结构行情中的亮点。我们认为中短期仍是布局建仓的好时机,考虑到短期A股整体资金环境稳定性有待确认,暂仍维持公司“增持”评级,待大环境风险释放确认后再作进一步上调。

积成电子:变配电主业强势增长,能源互联网布局蔚为大观

类别:公司研究 机构:平安证券有限责任公司 研究员:余兵 日期:2015-09-21

业绩稳健增长,费用管控持平:报告期内,公司实现营收4.07亿元,同比增长33.14%;实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润0.2亿元,同比增长15.31%;公司期间费用率达32.8%,与去年同比持平,其中财务费用率同比增长0.98个百分点,主要系本期银行借款利息支出较多所致。

变配电主业增势强劲,公用事业持续开拓:报告期内,国网公司集中招标批次及数量均有所下降,招标形势持续集中化,公司抓住国网集招与行业外市场机会,新签订合同额5.18亿元。1H15公司变电站/配用电业务实现营收1.38/1.63亿元,分别同比增长47.0%/69.5%,毛利率达40.42%/36.91%,分别同比增加5.89/-1.98个百分点。在上半年电网领域总体投资呈现阶段性低迷的形势下,公司变配电主业仍实现快速增长,市场份额持续提升。公用事业方面,公司成功开拓武汉、重庆等城市水务市场,智能远传水表市场保有量突破300万只,市场占有率排名第一;智能燃气解决方案已可为燃气领域客户提供一站式服务。

能源互联网多箭齐发,展翼军工领域:报告期内,公司联合中国移动、联想集团一起打造的智慧能源公共服务云平台上线,成为国内首家区域性的(山东省)智慧能源公共服务云平台,目前该平台已接入涵盖燃气、水务、工业节能等行业超26000个点的数据;与英特尔、山东城联合作,拓展能源互联网、智慧城市综合服务运营领域;投资4,116万元收购福建奥通迈胜70%的股权,奥通迈胜承诺15~17年扣非后净利润分别不低于0.1/0.13/0.17亿元,进一步完善城镇配电网业务;相继成立积成能源、积成软件公司,参与设立10亿元新能源产业引导基金,近期与广西桂东电力在电力需求侧的微网应用合作,更因应了电改新形势下的变局。军工领域,公司与北京久远合作成立军工并购基金;投资3000 万元收购宁波中物力拓30%的股权,进军以超微金属粉末为基础材质的3D 打印市场。

盈利预测与评级:预计公司15~16 年EPS 为0.52、0.78 元,对应8 月28 日收盘价PE 分别为33.9、22.6 倍,我们看好公司在能源互联网领域的先发优势及军工领域的外延拓展,维持“推荐”评级。

风险提示:电改方案低于预期的风险;军工业务拓展缓慢。

威海广泰:四季度业绩将提速;军用/民用专业级无人机龙头受益军民融合、通用航空

类别:公司研究 机构:中国银河证券股份有限公司 研究员:王华君 日期:2015-10-19

1.事件。

公司发布三季报,2015年前三季度实现收入9.08亿元,同比增长29.52%,实现净利润9880.57万元,同比增长33.92%,EPS为0.30元。

2.我们的分析与判断。

(一)盈利能力不断上升,业绩将进一步提速。

公司中报中预告前三季度业绩同比增长20%-50%,实际业绩符合我们的预期。公司毛利率和净利率分别同比提升1.1pct、0.9pct,盈利能力不断上升。

由于营口新山鹰的并表效应,公司第三季度单季收入和业绩同比分别长73%和60%。公司预告全年业绩同比增长40%-80%,达到1.56亿-2亿元,据此计算,第四季度单季业绩需达到5676万元-1.01亿元,同比增长52%-171%,业绩将进一步提速。

(二)拟收购全华时代,有望打造“无人机第一股”。

公司此前公告拟募集不超过5.4亿元,用于收购、增资全华时代并投入无人机项目(1.5亿元)及补充流动资金,增资完成后公司将拥有全华时代69.34%的股权。

全华时代是国内最早实现无人机研发、生产和销售及服务一体化的民营企业之一,主要产品包括固定翼、直升机、多旋翼等军用、民用无人机及无人机应用服务,在无人机技术专利主要职务发明申请企业中排名第1,全国范围内仅次于两所高等院校。

全华时代在应用服务领域的主要服务对象包括武警、消防、公安、海洋海事、电力、天津电视台等部门,曾作为唯一一家民营企业受邀参与了中国人民解放军举行的“四海三军”军事演习,并于2015年8月参与“8.12”陕西山阳山体滑坡勘测救援工作。

本次收购中约定,若全华时代在盈利承诺期内合计实际净利润高于承诺净利润9221万元,则超额净利润部分的50%将用于向全华时代、管理层及员工进行奖励。预计2016年全华时代净利润有望达到1500-2000万元,2015-2018年业绩有望连续翻倍增长。

公司2014年11月28日与某单位签订《系列无人机系统开发合作协议书》,目前已经在军用无人机业务具备较强实力。我们认为,本次收购全华时代将带来显著的产业链、市场及客户协同效应,特别是全华时代的军用无人机对公司现有部分军品业务将带来促进。本次发行后,公司将全面进入无人机行业,军品业务将快速发展,公司有望成为军用/民用专业级无人机龙头企业,对标消费级无人机龙头“大疆创新”(根据媒体报道,大疆创新的市值已超80亿美元)。

(三)军用无人机/军民融合稀缺标的,将快速发展。

公司系列无人机、高速无人机主要为军方供货,公司为军民融合标的。无人机是未来飞机发展趋势,据美国、以色列未来战机规划,未来无人机将超过有人机。我们测算未来15年中国军用无人机市场需求接近2000亿元,民用专业级无人机需求超1000亿元,民用消费级无人机(国内需求)超300亿元。

目前国内上市公司涉及军用无人机研制业务的有洪都航空宗申动力,隆鑫通用山东矿机通裕重工等上市公司也开始涉及无人机业务,但是,明确涉及军用无人机的极少。此外,目前很多上市公司仅仅开始涉及无人机,部分公司仅刚刚研制出1-2架样机开始做试验。而公司为非常稀缺的军用无人机标的,且拟收购的全华时代已是产业化的无人机巨头,是具有批量生产能力的优质无人机标的。

公司已聘用前西飞国际、中航通飞、中航重机董事长孟祥凯为独立董事,孟祥凯在航空航天、军品业务领域具备丰富的经验。我们判断公司无人机、特别是军用无人机业务未来将快速发展。

(四)入选中上协军工委国防军工板块,军品有望持续超预期。

2015年7月7日,中国上市公司协会发布了中上协军工委国防军工板块名单,威海广泰入选。2014年公司军品销售收入达到1.64亿元,同比大幅增长88%。公司总经理孟岩获批享受国务院特殊津贴,近年来承担国家级项目12项,军工项目10项,主持开发的多项产品填补国内、国际空白。公司军品方面积极参与研制具有前瞻性的批量大、价值高的新项目,目前有多个项目已经获得认可;一些重点科研项目取得阶段性成果,同时有重点地开拓新的市场领域,取得良好发展。我们判断公司军品未来发展将超市场预期,带来业绩估值双提升。

3.投资建议。

公司具备无人机+军民融合+通用航空+智能家居等多重主题,军品业务发展将超市场预期,受益通航产业大发展。我们判断公司未来将在军品(不仅仅是军用无人机)、消防设备领域持续加码,通过自主研发、兼并重组等措施,强化公司在消防设备、军品领域中的地位和影响力;营口新山鹰业绩将超预期。

不考虑本次非公开发行事项,预计15-17年备考EPS为0.63/0.82/1.06元,PE为49/38/29倍;考虑本次非公开发行事项(按照30元增发价测算),预计15-17年备考EPS为0.61/0.84/1.10元,PE为50/37/28倍,未来业绩具有上调潜力,持续推荐。

风险提示:通航政策低于预期、军品业务发展低于预期、产业整合低于预期。

海特高新:某型发动机工程荣获“国防科学技术进步奖”一等奖,受益军民深度融合

类别:公司研究 机构:中国银河证券股份有限公司 研究员:王华君 日期:2015-10-14

投资要点

1.事件

公司公告“某型发动机工程”荣获中华人民共和国工业和信息化部“国防科学技术进步奖”,获奖等级为一等奖。

2.我们的分析与判断

(一)获“国防科学技术进步奖”一等奖

国防科学技术进步奖是为了奖励在推动国防科学技术进步中做出突出贡献的单位和个人,鼓励自主创新,促进国防现代化建设和国民经济的发展。

本次公司获奖项目“某型发动机工程”,是公司军民深度融合中武器装备及其配套产品的科研、生产、试验及相关工作中取得的科技成果。本次项目获奖是公司不断追求技术创新的成果,是公司具备高等级技术创新能力的体现。

(二)航空研制:航空发动机及控制系统、直升机绞车业务持续发力

公司已由一家传统航空维修企业向综合航空技术服务企业战略转变,2012年以来航空动力核心控制系统等研制业务起飞,业绩驶入高增长快车道。 目前公司航空军品(主要为直升机相关)业绩占比约60%。公司2014年第一大客户销售金额为1.87亿元,我们判断主要为核心军品研制业务,收入占比已接近40%。

公司航空新技术研发制造业务板块已形成产品量产、多种新型号在研,以及多个项目预研全面推进的良好局面。某型航空动力控制系统正批量化生产;其他多型号航空动力控制系统项目的研制工作正在有序推进中;可满足多型直升机使用需求的电动救援绞车研制项目和氧气系统即将进入试飞测试阶段。

公司航空动力核心控制系统为核心军品,技术含量和壁垒极高。根据公司2014年年报,目前航空新技术研发制造业务已成为公司重要的业务板块,形成了既有产品量产、又有多种新型号在研,还有多个项目预研的良好科研生产局面。

目前,公司在已研发成功的某型号发动机电调项目的技术基础之上,开展对“新型航空动力控制系统的研发与制造项目”三种新型号(401、402、403)航空动力控制系统的衍生研发。

根据公司公告,动力控制系统是航空发动机的主要组件,在整个产业链条中属于必不可少的部分,约占发动机整体价值的10%-20%。受益于国产航空发动机市场的增长,动力控制系统市场也将呈现出稳定的增长态势。此外,民用航空发动机市场的发展、军民结合领域市场以及海外市场的逐步拓展,对航空动力控制产业也将具有一定的带动作用。

(三)芯片项目涉及国防信息安全,战略意义重大

公司投资5.55亿元收购成都嘉石科技有限公司部分股权并增资,交易完成后,持有其52.91%的股权。嘉石科技拥有自主研发具备国际领先水平的第三代半导体集成电路工艺以及从国外引进的第二代半导体集成电路工艺,其建成投产后将成为国内第一条6吋第二代/第三代半导体集成电路生产线,能有效抓住市场需求,填补国内市场空白,市场前景广阔。作为原国有控股的信息产业国家战略型公司,本次公司控股嘉石科技进军高端芯片研制产业,是混合所有制民企控股典范案例。

海特高新已与中电科29所签署了《战略合作意向书》,公司和中电科29所将就航空机载及检测设备开展联合立项、研制、联合生产等合作。双方将优先与对方开展深度合作。

中电科29所是我国最早建立、专业从事电子战技术研究、装备型号研制和生产的国家一类系统工程研究所,多年来一直承担着国家重点工程、国家重大基础、国家重大安全等工程任务,能够设计开发和生产陆、海、空、天、弹等各种平台的电子信息系统装备。中电科29所和中电科14所(国睿科技大股东)、中电科38所(四创电子大股东)齐名。海特高新通过控股嘉石科技进入高端半导体集成电路芯片研制领域,我们判断嘉石科技产品前期将主要应用于29所高端电子装备中,是“中国制造2025”中新一代信息技术领域重点发展的集成电路及专用装备,事关国防信息安全,具有极高的战略地位和重要性;未来市场前景看好。

嘉石科技注册资本10.49亿元,位于成都市双流县西南航空港经济开发区物联网产业园区内;海特高新和四威电子(29所全资子公司,29所民品产业母公司,工信部卫星导航应用系统标准工作组成员)分别占股52.91%、36.61%。海特高新处于控股地位,该项目是民企和央企(军工企业)混合所有制中民企控股的典范。

根据《成都嘉石科技有限公司6 吋第二代/第三代半导体集成电路芯片生产线项目环境影响报告书》,该项目总投资达20.92亿元。四川省经济和信息化委员会已经把本项目列为四川省战略性新兴产业支持项目。

嘉石科技6吋第二代/第三代半导体集成电路芯片用于微波毫米波频段尖端电子装备、军事应用和电机驱动器的高功率电子应用、无线通信基站、高频卫星通信、智能手机及无线通信等。嘉石科技详细情况请参见附件。

(四)参股设立大洋通用,探索通航混合所有制

通过子公司海特亚美和昆明飞安,以自有资金1.24亿元参股投资设立大洋通用航空有限公司(以下简称“大洋通用”),取得大洋通用31%的股权。大洋通用经营范围包括飞行私商照培训、航空器租赁托管、运营等各类通用航空服务业务,股东除海特亚美和昆明飞安外,还包括中航工业昌飞、江西凯文科技、江西天祥通航、中亚置业集团和江西军工思波通用航空服务等。根据协议,大洋通用董事会由7名董事组成,海特亚美和昆明飞安将各推荐一名董事;此外,大洋通用财务负责人将由海特亚美推荐。

参股设立大洋通用是公司在通用航空领域混合所有制的一次有力探索,也是公司军民深度融合的又一进展。大洋通用各股东方具备良好的行业资源和资金实力,将有效发挥各自资源优势,促进大洋通用良好发展。同时,公司进一步深化通航产业布局,将优化公司航空产业链,提升盈利能力,拓展公司通航产业发展空间。

(五)航空维修:大飞机整机大修、公务机/直升机/发动机维修获突破

公司传统航空维修业务主要为机载设备、涡轴发动机维修两大业务,处于国内领先地位。2014年,公司航空维修业务在深度和广度两个方向上的拓展均取得明显成效,业务范围覆盖运输飞机、通用飞机、直升机整机维修、发动机维修和部附件维修以及技术服务。

天津海特作为国内第一批民营干线飞机整机大修平台(之前国内以外资合资为主导),目前已完成第一期项目建设。目前公司天津基地2个机库已经投产,可同时维修2-3架A320/B737系列飞机及3架公务机。2015年1月,天津海特顺利完成吉祥航空B-9978 & B-9957两架A320系列飞机首次定检维修工作。公司已经取得CAAC颁发的空客A320机型4C检维修许可证,正积极向CAAC申请A320机型8C检维修许可。

未来公司天津基地二期、三期工程完工后,预计将形成5个机库,可同时进行9架A320/B737飞机、4架公务机、两架宽体机(B747/B777等)深度定检业务,将成为国内规模宏大,配套设施完善的第三方飞机维修基地。

此外,公司参股公司四川飞机维修工程有限公司2015将实现规模生产并盈利。公司与四川航空集团、香港飞机工程有限公司、厦门太古飞机工程有限公司共同组建的四川飞机维修工程有限公司,为国内专门从事空客飞机大修与改装基地。公司是其第二大股东,随着二期工程投资完成,2015将实现规模生产并盈利。

我们判断未来公司整机维修业务将获得大发展(部分机型大飞机整机大修一次约8000万元,航空维修业务通常毛利率50%以上)。

在航空维修广度上,公司涉及公务机、直升机、航空发动机、APU等多机种、多装备维修。

(1)公务机维修:天津宜捷海特通用航空服务有限公司是公司与全球第三大公务机服务商瑞士宜捷合资成立的专业通用航空服务公司,2014年正式运营后,已完成64架次支线飞机、公务机定检维修以及航线维护任务。

(2)直升机维修:基地位于天津的天津翔宇航空维修工程有限公司为经中国民航批准专业从事米-17系列直升机大修的公司。天津翔宇将在2015年恢复运营,将与新的合作伙伴时代翼天公司加大合作力度,充分发挥该公司在俄罗斯直升机领域的资源优势,陆续恢复扩大米系列直升机和卡型直升机维修生产能力,并积极拓展直九、直八、EC-135等直升机维修能力。

(3)航空发动机、辅助动力装置(APU)维修:业务稳定增长,2014年完成近百台发动机和辅助动力装置的大修和检测工作,并继续推进航空发动机维修能力建设工作,公司已经开展三种新的型号航空发动机维修能力开发工作。作为国家部委批准的航空发动机维修基地,公司已经建成了包括美国GE、法国赛峰、加拿大普惠、美国HONEYWELL、捷克PBS等制造厂生产的7个系列的20余种型号的发动机和辅助动力装置(APU)大修能力,是捷克PBS公司授权的大修基地;拥有经过加拿大普惠标定的发动机综合试车台,拥有按美国HONEYWELL、美国汉盛标准建设的辅助发动机试车台,可为直-8、直-9、直-19、米-171、运-12等提供发动机维修改装,可为B737、米-171等提供辅助发动机维修。

(六)进军飞机拆解、飞机后市场,市场潜力巨大

2015年上半年,天津海特承担了首架境外飞机在天津的拆解工作。本次拟拆解的飞机为北京集安航空资产管理公司从国外购买的有27年机龄的B767客机,飞机零部件将在拆除后进行翻修和重新利用,完成时间为3个月。7月6日,飞机在停机位进行了交接仪式。

天津海特飞机工程公司主要从事大飞机、公务机整机深度大修业务,是公司大飞机整机维修业务载体;已经获大飞机整机大修资质,于2014年11月开业。本次拆解任务的开展标志着公司正式进入飞机后市场,是天津海特继取得民航飞机整机大修、公务机大修并筹备直升机维修资质之后的又一里程碑。我们认为,天津海特维修业务未来将进一步多元化,公司向大飞机整机维修的战略升级将稳步落地。

在航空运输业发展迅速的今天,退役飞机的处置问题日渐突出。据了解,由于没有专业的拆解基地,中国的退役飞机基本都要到美国进行拆解处置。根据部分媒体报道,我国在航线执飞的飞机200多架,每年以进口300架的数量递增;每年退役飞机80-100架左右,以后退役飞机的数量还将逐年增加。如果考虑到海外飞机拆解市场,则市场更大。

根据媒体报道,在国际航空市场,循环使用二手零部件是普遍模式,一般来说,一架总价5000万美元的飞机,到使用期限后,回收价格为十分之一,即500万美元左右,拆解后,进入零件市场,可卖出1000万美元。更重要的是拉动周边产值,如物流、维修等,将创造企业产值的10倍至20倍。

拆解飞机可以增加航材,减少航材备件压力,从而产生较大的经济效益。未来中国不排除成为全球飞机拆解、航材交易基地,飞机拆解、飞机后市场潜力巨大。

(七)航空培训:形成昆明、新加坡、天津三大航空培训基地布局

公司航空培训业务布局于昆明、新加坡、天津三大航空培训基地。多领域(运输航空、通用航空)、多机种(干线飞机、通用飞机、直升机)覆盖国内外航空培训市场。

2014年底公司新加坡基地已建成,首批2台模拟机已经安装调式完毕,2015年将正式投入运营,将拓展东南亚及西亚地区航空培训市场。新加坡航空培训基地是公司践行“一带一路”国家战略的优质成果,也是国内航空产业重要的海外投资项目,目前公司已初步完成海内海外的航空培训市场布局,公司在航空培训市场竞争力和占有率将进一步提升,综合实力将得以增强。

2014年公司在天津空港保税区投资建设天津飞安,布局华北航空培训市场,建成后将具备7-10台模拟机运行能力(包括A320、B737和EC-135直升机D级模拟机),其中EC-135直升机D级模拟机是该机型国内首台高级别模拟机。

公司航空培训业务目前昆明飞安共运营5台模拟机,包括2台D级A320飞行模拟机、3台B737机型全动模拟机。目前公司新加坡基地2台模拟机已经到位,还有昆明基地1台、天津基地EC-135型直升机模拟机1台在购途中,预计新的4台模拟机将在2015年开始贡献业绩。公司新加坡航空培训基地计划投资5.8亿元,至2014年6月已投入1.2亿元。2015年1月,海特新加坡飞行训练中心B737-800W和A320-200两台全动飞行模拟机顺利通过中国民航总局和新加坡民航局初始鉴定。

未来公司还将航空培训业务从民航拓展至直升机领域。2013年6月,公司发布公告购买EC-135型直升机飞行模拟机及其附属设备,总计价格不超过1000万欧元,已签订购买意向合同书。公司直升机培训业务将放在天津基地。

我们判断公司规划模拟机数量未来可达到20台的规模(昆明6台左右,新加坡6台左右、天津7-10台)。如果每台模拟机平均每天运作20小时,每小时按照3000元(或者400-500美元/小时)计算,如果按照80%左右的利用率,则每台模拟机收入接近1800万元,公司航空培训业务毛利率在50%左右。

未来公司航空培训业务如果达到20台模拟机,仅模拟机航空培训业务收入(不计乘务员培训等其他业务)即可达到3.6亿元。

(八)航空融资租赁:飞机整机、发动机、航材融资租赁业务即将突破

公司航空租赁业务未来将覆盖大飞机整机、发动机、航材的租赁业务。

2013年公司出资设立四川海特租赁有限公司,开始涉足航空租赁服务业务。2014年7月,公司被商务部、国家税务总局批准为全国第十二批内资融资租赁试点企业,该项业务有利于公司优化航空服务商业模式,实现航空产业多元化发展,并整合资源,向综合航空技术服务方向发展,达到促进公司航空主营业务发展的目的。目前公司航空融资租赁服务业务正按计划推进,飞机整机、发动机、航材的租赁业务架构初步形成。

(九)募集16.6亿发展新型航空动力ECU等主业

公司已完成定增事项,增发价为20元,共发行8282万股,募集资金总额16.6亿元,新增股票已于9月2日上市。公司将拓展航空动力控制系统研制能力等。

本次发行的募集资金项目为“天津海特飞机维修基地2号维修机库建设项目”、“新型航空动力控制系统的研发与制造项目”、“新型航空发动机维修技术开发和产业化项目”、“天津飞安航空训练基地建设项目”和“补充流动资金”。

3.投资建议

预计15-17年EPS为0.16/0.36/0.56元,PE为114/51/33倍,预计公司明后年业绩将高速增长。公司军品占比已经超过50%,预计未来公司估值将向国睿科技、四创电子、中航动控、中直股份等靠拢;维持“推荐”评级。

风险提示:军品交付时间不确定性、直升机绞车和新型号ECU量产时间的不确定性、增发股本增厚摊薄业绩、整合风险。

天奇股份:并购落地,汽车后市场正式发力

类别:公司研究 机构:广发证券股份有限公司 研究员:罗立波,刘芷君 日期:2015-10-26

公司发布公告,经中国证监会上市公司并购重组审核委员会审核,公司发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金暨关联交易事项获得无条件通过。

并购落实拆解全产业链布局,汽车后市场正式发力。本次收购宜昌力帝100%股权和宁波回收66.5%股权正式落地,公司在汽车拆解后市场领域“三大回收中心+两大拆解中心+两大运营平台”全产业链布局开始成型,此次并购落地,明年拆解板块三大公司将集体并表,考虑明年业绩承诺及各自持股比例(宜昌力帝明年承诺净利润为4700万元,持股100%;苏州再生承诺2000万元;持股70%,宁波回收约为2000万元,持股66.5%),随着自动化拆解能力加强,后市场明年将会对业绩形成显著支撑。

黄标车淘汰政策,加速拆解窗口期来临。截至9月,全国黄标车淘汰量为82万辆,未达预期。目前环保部加大了对黄标车淘汰的政策力度,环保部等五部门联合发文推进黄标车淘汰政策,实行每月通报淘汰量制度。黄标车淘汰将会在未来1-2年内加速,废旧汽车回收拆解量也会迎来短期峰值。

主业订单充足,明年主业向上预期强烈。公司主业汽车物流自动化装备业务目前在手订单充足,同比超过30%,考虑其确认周期和今年基数,明年主业有望实正增长。加上公司自动化仓储业务在电商、医药、冷链等领域的突破,明年主业向上预期强烈。

投资建议:我们预测公司2015-2017年营业收入为1,999、2,573和2,882百万元,EPS分别为0.21、0.37和0.46元。公司在汽车自动化物流装备领域具有突出优势,在智能仓储系统和汽车拆解市场具有良好的产业布局,结合业绩和估值情况,我们维持公司“买入”评级。

风险提示:汽车自动化装备需求受汽车销量和投资影响的不确定性;黄标车淘汰政策执行具有不确定性;废钢价格波动对于拆解业务利润影响较大。

厦工股份:抢占一带一路核心区域,中航参股进军军工

类别:公司研究 机构:国金证券股份有限公司 研究员:后立尧 日期:2015-04-08

事件。

一带一路愿景与行动文件正式发布,基础设施互联互通优先启动。文件确定将以福建和新疆作为中亚欧海上丝绸之路核心区,广西和云南则分别是门户和辐射区域。同期,在亚投行不断扩围和博鳌亚洲论坛召开的双重催化作用下,“一带一路”区域发展概念不断强化。

3月30日晚,央行、住建部、银监会联合下发《关于个人住房贷款政策有关问题的通知》,为改善性需求的个人住房贷款下调了首付款比例至不低于40%。同一时间,财政部和国家税务总局联合下发《关于调整个人住房转让营业税政策的通知》,大幅度减免了对部分符合条件的住房对外销售的营业税征收。随着房地产松绑政策接踵而至,住房改善性需求迎来重大利好。

公司业绩预告2014年年度经营业绩与上年同期相比,将出现扭亏为盈,预计实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为0到1,000万元;公司2014年度累计收到政府补助共47,648.56万元,导致营业外收入有较大增幅。

评论。

海上丝绸之路核心区工程机械企业,海外建组装厂迎合一带一路:21世纪海上丝绸之路规划的重点方向是从中国沿海港口过南海到印度洋,延伸至欧洲,以及从中国沿海港口过南海到南太平洋。现已确定将福建和新疆打造为21世纪海上丝绸之路核心区。厦门区域优势明显,厦工股份地处一路一带核心区福建厦门,目前出口业务占比15%。公司已在巴基斯坦建立了组装厂,为迎合一路一带和福建自贸区建设奠定了良好基础,是工程机械设备出口首选标的。

粤津闽自贸区总体方案通过,厦门市国资委重点扶持:3月24日,中共中央总书记习近平主持召开中共中央政治局会议,审议通过广东、天津、福建自由贸易试验区总体方案、进一步深化上海自由贸易试验区改革开放方案。自贸区第二季发令枪打响,福建自贸区备受海内外的瞩目,预计两大方案正式文本将在近期内面世,自贸区挂牌也正式进入倒计时阶段。厦工股份是厦门市国资委重点扶持的制造业企业,就规模而言,公司目前在业内处于第二梯队位置,公司的主营产品装载机占收入60%左右,在国内市场份额约16%,居行业前三水平。2010年包括公司在内的9家中国工程机械制造商进入全球工程机械50强。

中航工业参股,军民融合典范:中航工业拥有工程机械产品核心零部件液压技术的研发能力,中航工业参股厦工股份,以其作为产业发展平台,凭借其技术研发实力,提升工程机械产品的技术水平,延伸“四轮一带”等工程机械关键零部件产业,同时打造航空维修及机电基地,进军军工领域大大提升公司在国内工程机械领域的核心竞争力。公司目前正在做产权划转,实际控制人可能会变更为中航工业,成为中航工业系统内军民融合的典范。中航工业的入驻将加强公司军工背景,在习总书记要求加快构建适应履行使命要求的装备体系大背景下,公司估值水平有望提高。

政策松绑推动房地产投资回暖,期待2015年出现业绩反转:基础设施建设投资中,设备投入主要在工程机械。由于我国固定资产投资,尤其是房地产投资增速的放缓,导致起重机、挖掘机、装载机等工程机械主要产品的下游购买力持续下降,公司业绩一度陷入低谷。公司年度业绩预告称,公司2014年净利润与上年同期相比出现了扭亏为盈,但主要来源于政府补助476.48百万元的营业外收入,业绩并未出现根本性好转。

随着房地产松绑政策接踵而至,住房改善性需求迎来重大利好。房地产调控政策的放开将有助于房地产新建项目开工量上升,从而拉动设备市场需求逐步回暖。由此判断,工程机械有望受益于一带一路帮助消化过剩产能以及国内地产投资复苏的双重利好,预计今年设备销量降幅将趋于收窄,产业持续去库存去杠杆化的情况也将在二季度将得到明显改善。我们期待工程机械行业在二、三季度能出现实质性的业绩反转。

展望未来几年,工程机械行业或仍存在的市场保有量较大、产能过剩、竞争加剧等问题,市场洗牌和优胜劣汰的格局难以避免。一部分龙头企业将充分受益“一带一路”,在竞争格局变化中处于有利地位。公司主营业务装载机的市占率位居行业前列,规模化效应显现。预计随着海内外基建投资回暖,公司主营业务销售情况也将随工程机械市场需求整体企稳。

投资建议。

我们首次对公司进行盈利预测,预测2015/2016年归属于母公司的净利润为0.89、2.11亿元,EPS分别为0.09、0.22元(考虑摊薄后),给予“买入”评级,年内目标价17.7元。

川大智胜中报点评:图像新业务实现销售,多元化发展推动增长

类别:公司研究 机构:国海证券股份有限公司 研究员:代鹏举 日期:2015-08-28

事件:公司中报发布,实现营业总收入8257.2万元,较上年同期增长22.30%;实现营业利润1501.8万元,较上年同期增长65.79%。预计2015年1-9月归属于上市公司股东的净利润变动区间1840.3至2208.4万元。

业绩增长符合预期,期待军航空管大单落地。公司扣非后净利润同比增长79.8%。在积极推广新产品的背景下,管理费用和销售费用同比没有出现大幅增长。公司营业收入和利润增长符合一季报预测。空管自动化项目毛利率超过48%。全年净利润增长预计最高为500%,主要决定于2013年中标2.38亿空管自动化项目落地。根据以往军队招标项目的经验,我们认为项目中标已有两年,今年落地可能性大。

多元化发展,图像新产品有望成为业绩增速器。1、新产品管制员体验飞行模拟机和D级飞行模拟机视景系统均已实现销售或中标。未来随着国内通用航空开放和兴起,国内飞行员培训市场空间巨大。2、大型全景互动体验系统已签订首份合同,采用了公司的高清LED立体显示、全景互动体验节目和多项图形图像技术等,未来将在国内教育和科普行业推广。3、基于全景视频融合的新一代机场场面活动智能监控和管理系统正在积极建设和销售。公司图像类的新产品具有超过65%的高毛利率和广阔的市场空间,未来有望成为新动力源

三维人脸识别正在装机测试,未来产业化空间无限。公司采用英特尔公司的低成本传感器,成功开发出国内第一套三维人脸识别系统,并在2015年英特尔信息技术峰会展示。该三维人脸识别系统实现了成本大幅降低和体积大幅减小。公司三维人脸识别技术是有别于传统二维识别,技术独特优势明显。未来三维人脸识别将会像指纹识别、条型码和RFID等识别技术一样,广泛应用于国防军事、公共安全、信息安全、金融支付安全等领域。未来基于国家安全考虑,三维人脸设备和基础软件要求全套国产化。公司最早进入该领域并占据技术优势。未来随着市场放量,三维识别技术产业化将有望给公司带来巨大的效益。

看好公司未来,维持“增持”评级。公司拥有高壁垒、高毛利率的空管自动化核心业务,业绩稳定高增长。我们看好公司当前多元化发展的未来。重点布局图形图像业务,部分新业务逐步发力。未来三维人脸识别产业化空间巨大。预计2015~2017年EPS为0.33、0.54、0.79元,对应的PE为82、50、35倍,维持“增持”评级。

风险提示:公司新产品不达预期,空管项目延迟或中止。

通达动力:靴子终落地,全力转型军工信息化和自动化,未来将成为核心军品公司

类别:公司研究 机构:安信证券股份有限公司 研究员:邹润芳,王书伟 日期:2015-04-22

业绩符合预期,一季度净利润大幅增长。

公司2014年实现营业收入10.52亿元,同比增长14.62%,实现归属于母公司的净利润-1659.5万元,同比减少263%;EPS为-0.1元,业绩符合预期。净利润大幅减少,主要原因为公司毛利率下降及计提资产减值损失所致。

公司2015年一季度实现1.75亿元,同比减少27.86%,实现归属母公司净利润为117万元,同比增长83.61%,符合预期。

传统主业盈利能力下降,15年有望触底反弹。

公司2014年综合毛利率为12.84%,较去年同期下降2.4个百分点,毛利率下降主要原因为行业整体仍旧面临产能过剩、产品价格下降。

公司积极推动传统主业升级,将通过减员增效、调节产品结构提升业绩,另外公司江苏富松模具、江苏和传电气有限公司的新工厂均已顺利投产,新产业打造新的长期增长点,15年传统主业有望触底反弹。

全力转型军工信息化和自动化,将成为核心军品公司。

公司持续推进军工信息化和智能化装备转型。已经签订取得深圳市亿威尔信息技术股份有限公司60%股权意向书,进军雷达和信息安全市场,如顺利收购将成为公司发展军工信息化的主要平台;在天津成立天津通达达尔力科技有限公司,以“火炮多功能维护保养单元”和“轻型装甲快速处突车”两项技术为突破口进军陆军和武警车辆市场,并作为公司发展军工智能化主要平台。未来公司仍将通过收购兼并和技术整合等方式执行军工信息化和智能化核心发展战略。

投资建议:买入-A投资评级,6个月目标价40元。我们预计公司2015年-2017年的EPS分别为0.35、1、1.25元,公司坚定转型军工信息化及自动化,将通过收购兼并等方式持续推进转型。

风险提示:转型不达预期,业绩大幅下滑

亚星锚链:全球锚链龙头业绩拐点显现,手持12亿现金将积极开辟第二主业

类别:公司研究 机构:中国银河证券股份有限公司 研究员:王华君,陈显帆 日期:2015-04-29

1.事件.

公司发布2014 年年报和2015 年一季报。2014 年公司实现收入15.28亿元,同比增长8.46%,实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润2988 万元,同比上升4734 万元,EPS 为0.06 元。公司分红预案为每10 股送0.5 元转增10 股,派发现金股利0.50 元(含税)。

2015 年第一季度公司实现营业收入4.15 亿元,同比增长8.46%,实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润3083 万元,下滑3.65%,EPS 为0.07 元。

2.我们的分析与判断.

(一)业绩拐点已现符合预期,持续增长有保障.

公司此前已发布2014 年度业绩预告,实际业绩符合预期。公司海工业务收入占比提升4.6pct,公司盈利能力随之持续增长,2015 年第一季度综合毛利率达到23.31%,为近四年最高水平,同比提升1.6pct。

公司2015 年度计划完成营业收入16.5 亿。公司2014 年承接订单19.22 亿元,同比上升6.6%,截至2014 年12 月31 日公司在手订单15.16亿元,同比增长19.8%,公司2015 年业绩持续增长有保障。

(二)海工系泊链全球一流,征服全球前5 大客户.

公司海工系泊链产品结构不断升级,2014年毛利率同比大增8.64pct。

2014 年公司实现海工系泊系统连接件产量2000 吨,2015 年计划将产量提高到4000 吨;超高级别R6 系泊链研发已进入中试阶段;公司参与研制的“超深水半潜式钻井平台研发与应用”项目获得了2014 年度国家科学技术进步特等奖。公司正积极向系泊系统连接件以外的附件产品延伸。

公司在全球前五大海洋石油公司中已获得四家(法国道达尔公司、挪威国家石油公司、荷兰皇家壳牌集团、巴西国家石油公司)供应商资格认证,美孚石油也计划在5 月对公司进行考察认证,公司在海洋系泊链及附件领域已经达到全球一流水平;海工装备行业短期承压中长期向好,公司系泊链业务将持续发展,并进一步提升在海工领域市场占有率。

(三)手持现金近12 亿元,将积极开辟第二主业.

公司目前手持现金近12 亿元。公司此前购置的约14 万平方米土地,除了公司之前IPO 募投项目年产3 万吨超高强度R5 海洋系泊链技术改造项目的剩余部分项目外,我们判断仍有较多富余,具备充足的外延式发展条件。公司明确提出“将积极开辟第二主业,计划在未来两到三年内确定,以进一步提升公司规模及竞争力”。我们判断公司不排除以外延方式实现第二主业的开拓。

3.投资建议.

预计公司2015 年将有3357 万元坏账准备冲回,2015-2017 年业绩将实现较快增长,业绩弹性大,未来不排除外延式发展。预计2015-2017 年EPS 为0.32/0.39/0.47 元,PE 为50/42/35 倍。剔除在手12 亿元现金后公司市值仅64 亿元,PB 仅2.3 倍,具有较好的安全边际,维持“推荐”评级。风险因素:船舶锚链复苏低于预期;油价持续下跌;外延式发展低于预期。

利君股份:拟收购成都三航持续加码军工业务,复牌5交易日内增持不低于2.86亿元

类别:公司研究 机构:中国银河证券股份有限公司 研究员:王华君 日期:2015-09-09

1.事件。

公司公告拟收购成都三航机电有限责任公司(以下简称:“成都三航”)股权,公司股票自9月8日起复牌。

根据公司之前的公告,公司控股股东、实际控制人及其一致行动人等股东复牌5交易日内增持不低于2.86亿元。

2.我们的分析与判断。

(一)拟收购成都三航,持续加码军工业务。

本次拟收购的成都三航主营业务包括航空航天设备生产、研发、航空飞行器外挂装置等;拥有《军工产品质量体系认证证书》、《三级保密资格单位证书》、《武器装备科研生产许可证》、《装备承制单位注册证书》等生产经营所需的相关资质。公司的飞机通用挂架项目被列入2014年成都市战略性新兴产品研发补贴立项项目,公司同时被认定为2015年成都市企业技术中心。

根据公司公告,成都三航2014年度实现营业总收入0.72亿元,净利润0.27亿元,净利润率达到37.5%,盈利能力较强。公司已基本完成了对成都三航收购的前期准备工作,正就交易方案等与成都三航股东进行沟通谈判。如果本次收购成功,一方面有望提升公司整体盈利能力,另一方面有望与此前公告将收购的德坤航空产生协同效应,为公司带来新的利润增长点。

(二)复牌5交易日内增持不低于2.86亿元。

根据公司之前的公告,公司控股股东、实际控制人、董事长何亚民先生及其一致行动人、副董事长何佳女士拟于公司申请股票复牌交易当日起的五个交易日内通过深圳证券交易所证券交易系统按竞价的方式合计增持市值不低于2.5亿元的资金购买公司股票。

公司股东、副董事长、总经理魏勇先生拟于公司股票复牌之日起五个交易日内通过深圳证券交易所证券交易系统按竞价的方式增持市值不低于0.36亿元的资金购买公司股票。

上述3人目前持有公司总股本的80.45%。根据维护公司股价稳定方案的公告,上述3人承诺:自2015年7月7日起12个月内,不减持所持有利君股份的股份,不转让或者委托他人管理其持有利君股份的股份。

(三)在手现金充裕,将加快转型军工,有望成军民融合典范。

公司此前公告将以3.7亿元现金收购德坤航空100%股权。德坤航空是中航工业成飞最主要的结构件外协加工制造企业之一;产品应用于多型号军用飞机、大型运输机、无人机、导弹等,并为各大型客、货机及国内支线飞机(ARJ项目)、中国商飞C919等提供配套产品。

公司在手现金13.4亿元,大股东及一致行动人拥有上市公司65%的股份,公司有望打造军工业务整合重要平台。2014年9月公司公告拟参股明日宇航(新研股份并购标的,国内著名航空航天配套零部件制造商)。我们认为公司锁定转型军工领域,且收购标的均非常优秀。

我们判断公司跟踪项目丰富,未来可能持续加快转型军工领域,具备收购规模较大、业绩较好的军工业务的潜力,将成为军民融合典范。

(四)节能环保装备小巨人,盈利能力强。

公司为水泥、矿山粉磨系统龙头企业,盈利能力突出,现金创造能力强,综合毛利率多年保持在50%左右,净利润率多年超35%。公司老业务水泥辊压机市场份额稳居全球第一。新业务矿山辊磨机能够降低电耗和金属消耗,大幅减少水污染,属于国家重点鼓励发展的节能降耗和环保类产品。预计矿山辊磨机未来将获得较好发展。

3.投资建议。

不考虑外延,预计15-17年EPS为0.36/0.39/0.40元,PE为71/66/64倍;考虑德坤航空,预计15-17年备考EPS为0.45/0.51/0.58元,PE为57/50/45倍。公司估值有望向军工股靠拢(军工股2015年平均PE接近80倍)。我们判断公司未来将持续加码军工业务,业绩有望实现较大提升,估值有望向军工股靠拢,维持推荐。风险提示:水泥设备需求萎缩、矿山市场开拓进度低于预期、转型军工进度低于预期。

宗申动力:小贷业务稳步推进,无人机量产在即

类别:公司研究 机构:华金证券有限责任公司 研究员:张仲杰 日期:2015-06-19

投资要点

摩托车发动机行业周期性调整: 2014年公司摩托车发劢机业务销售收入27.4亿元,增长1.68%,目前中小型摩托车发劢机业务基本在微利状态,大排量三轮摩托车小幅增长,四轮车市场正在启劢。农村市场还是能够保持较大的销售觃模,估计公司2015年收入降幅在5%左右。电劢车是未来转型方向,2015年态势较好,销量估计会有大幅增长。

通用机械业务保持增长态势:通用机械2014年销售额12.3亿元,同比增长30%,公司销量增加主要得益于出口,小型通机在美国有较大的市场,随着美国天然气产量的增长,以电劢机作为劢力的通用机械的市场正在培育之中。这块业务发展态势明确,我们预计该项业务2015年增速在20%以上。

小贷公司业务稳步推进:为充分利用宗申集团及公司上下游产业链资源,同时控制风险,公司小额信贷业务80%业务围绕产业链开展,例如集团宠户的应收款,在回款之前提供信贷,风险可控。后续公司也计划在小贷公司的基础上逐步扩张,开展保理、P2P、股权投资等,未来觃模可望做到300亿元左右。目前该业务发展较好,盈利增长较快,未来有望成为公司四大业务支柱之一。

销售服务市场模式创新:左师傅公司有575家直营、合资不加盟连锁门店,初步形成了“售后服务+零配件销售”的商业模式,以之为基础,幵利用天猫和淘宝互联网平台,积极销售各类终端产品,2014年净利润同比增长152%。公司也在尝试介入汽车后市场服务,不互联网公司合作在重庆开设2家门店,以点带面线上业务将有望快速开展。

无人机业务将成为新的增长点:公司最近不不青岛宏百川公司共同出资5,000万元设立重庆宗申天翼航空科技有限公司,其中公司出资3,350万元占67%股权。目前公司正积极推迚宗项目公司的生产区域选址、生产线布局、机型选择、销售服务网络建设等相关工作。预计可于2015年9月实现小批量生产,青岛宏百川公司原股东承诺2015年至2017年宏百川公司实现的净利润累计丌低于1.325亿元。鉴于无人机业务的广阔市场前景,预计该项业务将成为公司新的增长点。

投资建议:我们预测2015年-2017年公司每股收益分别为0.41、0.51和0.71元。我们讣为公司小贷业务发展态势良好,无人机业务批量销售在即,公司由此形成新的业绩增长点,前景广阔。给予“买入-A”投资评级,6个月目标价为33.15元,对应2016年65倍PE。

风险提示:行业不公司基本面变化导致业绩丌达预期。

新研股份:收购明日宇航获批文,跨入高速发展新时期

类别:公司研究 机构:西南证券股份有限公司 研究员:庞琳琳 日期:2015-10-28

业绩总结:2015年前三季度,公司实现营业收入515.2百万元,同比增长12.44%,营业利润90.3百万元,同比增长3.58%,净利润85.5百万元,同比增长5.60%;每股收益0.095元。

农机主业运行平稳。2015年农机补贴一改持续增长的态势,同比减少1亿元,农机产品需求明显变弱,农机企业经营严峻。凭借过硬的产品质量,公司前三季度收入实现12.44%的增长。公司前三季度毛利率为34.12%,同比下降4.33个百分点,期间费用率14.95%,同比下降2.32个百分点(主要是销售费用率同比下降3.26个百分点);销售净利率为16.46%,同比微降1.21个百分点。

并购重组事项获证监会核准批复。2015年公司积极开展外延式并购,公司以发行股份及支付现金方式购买什邡市明日宇航工业股份有限公司100%股权,目前本次重大资产重组已获得中国证监会并购重组委审核通过,于2015年10月26日获得中国证监会核准批复。重组完成后,公司将成为农机、军工双主业上市公司,并将在农机、军工两个领域得到快速发展。

明日宇航为“民参军”最优标的,业绩存在超预期能力和动力。1、从产值角度,明日宇航目前所有产能投入可达到产值40亿+;2、从订单角度,配合主要机型的加速列装(军机订单进入释放期),军工订单将从2013-2014年的试制逐渐走向小批,具有高速成长潜能;3、从设备能力看,公司已形成了先进性、规模化的领先优势,并仍在不断扩大;4、净利润率看,公司毛利率维持稳中有升的态势,收购后公司航空航天零部件业务的财务费用将低于现在的11%,再考虑到技术提升、订单和产能释放带来的规模效应,净利率有望从目前的不到20%提高到25%以上。

盈利预测及评级:下表盈利预测仅考虑农机主业。明日宇航2015至2017年度业绩承诺为扣非净利润应达1.7亿元(+55.96%)、2.4亿元(+41.18%)和4.0亿元(66.67%),未来三年复合增长率55%,但我们认为公司2017年业绩超预期概率非常大,估算2017年有望达到7.35亿元,三年复合增长率超过86%。

公司收购明日宇航后,作为明确的民参军标的,在民参军大发展的预期背景下理应享有高估值,加之较明确的再并购预期,维持“买入”评级。

Original Source HERE

China upgrades missile force, adds space and cyber war forces – #China Military Online

People’s Republic of China upgrades missile force, adds space and cyber war forces

Source: Global TimesEditor: Dong Zhaohui

Chinese President Xi Jinping (L F), confers the military flag to Li Zuocheng (C F), commander of the Army of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and Liu Lei, political commissar of the Army, in Beijing, capital of China, Dec. 31, 2015. The general commands of the PLA Army, Rocket Force and Strategic Support Force were founded on Thursday.

The People’s Republic of China, Friday unveiled further details of one of its largest military reforms, launching three new bodies of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), including an army command, an upgraded missile force and a special force for space and cyber wars.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, who also heads the Central Military Committee (CMC), on Thursday conferred military flags to the commanders of the three bodies, namely the PLA Army General Command, the PLA Rocket Force and the PLA Strategic Support Force, at their inauguration ceremony in Beijing.

This is part of China’s key reforms aimed at enhancing the Communist Party of China’s (CPC) leadership over the military, and boosting the PLA’s combat capabilities by establishing a modern military system.

Rocket force

Analysts said the establishment of the PLA Rocket Force is an upgrade of the previous Second Artillery Force, which operates strategic as well as conventional missile weapons.

The upgrade places the rocket force on an equal footing with the army, navy and air force, said Song Zhongping, a military expert.

The name change to the Rocket Force from “Second Artillery Force” also shows China’s determination to enhance military transparency. It will also impose strong strategic deterrence, he said.

The Defense Ministry on Friday stressed that the establishment of the Rocket Force does not mean a major change of its nuclear policy.

Reiterating its no-first-use nuclear weapons policy and defensive nuclear strategy, spokesperson Yang Yujun said at a press conference that China’s nuclear policy remains consistent, and China always keeps its nuclear capability at the minimum level required for safeguarding its national security.

“We will strive to build a strong and modern Rocket Force,” he said.

Cyber and space forces

Yang did not get into much detail about what the Strategic Support Force is, but said it is a force which combines the strategic, basic and support resources of the country’s new type of combat forces.

But Song said this new force is mainly aimed at providing resources capable of protecting China’s cyber and space security.

Song said the establishment of the Strategic Support Force shows the Chinese leadership’s vision of building a military that can meet the challenges of not only traditional warfare but also of new warfare centered on new technology.

Army command

The army used to be supervised by four headquarters – the General Staff Headquarters, the General Political Department, the General Logistics Department and the General Armament Department.

The establishment of the Army General Command puts the control directly under the Central Military Commission. It is a major measure to improve the leadership and command system, the Ministry of National Defense said earlier.

Through a joint command and combat system, the Central Military Commission will be able to directly lead the army, the navy, the air force and rocket force, which will largely enhance the efficiency during wartime, said Song.

At Thursday’s conferral ceremony, President Xi said the move to form the Army General Command, the Rocket Force and the Strategic Support Force is a major decision by the CPC Central Committee and the Central Military Commission to realize the Chinese dream of a strong military, and a strategic step to establish a modern military system with Chinese characteristics.

It will be a milestone in the modernization of the Chinese military and will be recorded in the history of the people’s armed forces, according to Xi.

The Central Military Commission has also released a guideline on deepening national defense and military reform, about a month after Xi ordered a military administration and command system overhaul at a key meeting.

According to the guideline, a new structure will be established in which the CMC takes charge of the overall administration of the PLA, the Chinese People’s Armed Police and the militia and reserve forces, while battle zone commands focus on combat and various military services pursue development.

The military reforms, which will involve massive restructuring and regrouping, are expected to “make major breakthroughs” and achieve concrete results by 2020, according to the CMC.

Xinhua contributed to this story


The General Command of Army Badge. Photo source: weibo account of “yangshixinwen”.


The PLA Rocket Force Badge. Photo source: weibo account of “yangshixinwen”.
 

The PLA Strategic Support ForceBadge. Photo source: weibo account of “yangshixinwen”.
 

http://english.chinamil.com.cn/news-channels/photo-reports/2016-01/01/content_6840094.htm

China’s World Internet Conference and the Future of Chinese Cyberspace

William Hagestad II

DSC_4244

December 2015, the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) invited me to attend the World Internet Conference (WIC) in Wuzhen, People’s Republic of China (PRC).

It is important to understand that the Chinese Government had created a 20 kilometer security exclusion zone around the epicenter of the WIC. The Chinese residents of Wuzhen were replaced with a regiment of soldiers from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and plainclothes policemen and women of China’s Ministry of State Security.

Opening day of the WIC China’s President, Xi Jinping gave his opening comments, a heavenly mandate for the largely handpicked Communist Party of China (CPC) member and international audience “Cyberspace is not a place [that is] beyond the rule of law”. President Xi’s opening address was focused on delegates including Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and Pakistani president Mamnoon Hussain; conspicuously absent were officials from the United States, England, Australia, Canada and New Zealand.

Chinese President Xi provided direction which included a proposed the “four principles and five propositions”, systematically expounding China’s concept of a “China Network View” in the New Period. His focus included a statement that China is willing countries to strengthen dialogue and exchanges, effective management and control differences, and promote the development of the parties to the generally accepted international rules of cyberspace, cyberspace develop international conventions on terrorism, the fight against cybercrime and improve mutual legal assistance mechanisms, and jointly safeguard peace and security in cyberspace .

China’s 21st Century Boxer Rebellion

Short history lesson lest we forget how the Western failed to read between the Chinese tea leaves of China’s 21st Century network sovereignty initiative. During the early 1900’s an eight nation coalition of Eight Powers had invaded and occupied North Eastern China. The Qing Dynasty Chinese rebels known as the Boxer’s called this foreign invasion the “八國聯軍”, or Eight-Nation Alliance. This eight nation alliance included the Empire of Japan, United Kingdom, French Third Republic, German Empire, Austria-Hungary, Kingdom of Italy, the United States of America and the Russian Empire.[1] the capital of the Qing Empire, was captured eight countries & invading armies this day…”the darkest day in modern Chinese history.”[2] Save the attendance of Russia’s Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev at the 2015 WIC, none of the other members of the 1900 “八國聯軍” were invited to officially attend China future discussion on the Internet at the WIC. It is prophetic then that the Chinese have not forgotten the foreign invasion and occupation of China’s homeland so long ago as backdrop for the WIC and the new future of China’s version of the Internet in the form of a Chinese Binary Rebellion…where delaying, denying and disrupting foreign incursions into China’s Internet are an echo and reminder of the 1900’s Boxer Rebellion.

 

You Are Either Part of the Party or You are Not

One of the important comments made by President Xi which underscores China’s current proposal for a secured and stable International Internet is that “Everyone should abide by the law, with the rights and obligations of parties concerned clearly defined. Cyberspace must be governed, operated and used in accordance with the law so that the internet can enjoy sound development under the rule of law.”[3]

Perhaps in the light of America’s National Security Agency failure to properly vet and control traitorous contractors, Chinese President Xi called for Chinese (sic) government action was needed to strengthen “civilised behaviour” on the internet, adding and calling for measures to “rehabilitate the cyber ecology”.[4]

China’s new cyber ecology will include, according to President Xi’s keynote speech will include building China into a global cyber power, speeding up Internet infrastructure development and imperative that China be regarded as a staunch defender of international cybersecurity.[5] Certainly the recent agreement with the United States on a high-level and mutual dialogue on cybercrime is evidence of China’s willingness to work with even the harshest critics of its organic Internet governance policies.[6]

International governments should make no mistake however, China’s leader emphasized that “cyber security is as important as national security.” And thus both Internet security and informatization are China’s major strategic issues concerning any country’s security and development.[7]

Curiously, however, President Xi’s keynote comments were live-tweeted by the state-run news portal, Xinhua, China’s official news agency, and broadcast on YouTube.[8] Both of these Western social media platforms are services which are blocked by Beijing.

Indeed as the WIC came to a conclusion, international cooperation was a main focus for China’s leadership as “President Xi Jinping urged all countries to respect Internet sovereignty, jointly safeguard cybersecurity, cooperate with an open mind, and improve Internet governance together.”[9]

 

Thus, given the international audience represented at the WIC, guidelines were given for adhering to the new Rule of Law on China’s version of an international Internet or be left behind and thus unable to participate in the world’s largest economy. Indeed Mr. Eugene Kaspersky signed a very lucrative contract at the WIC forging a unique cyber-security partnership with the China Cyber Security Company, thus demonstrating China’s willingness to embrace and recognize Internet technology such as those offered by Kaspersky.[10]

 

The Future of China’s Internet

 

Indicative of what the future holds for the Internet within the People’s Republic of China is the Xiaomi mobile phone I was provided on the first day of the WIC. While the number was Chinese, the SIM card was registered in Hong Kong allowing me to access typically blocked Western Internet websites such as Facebook, Twitter, and Google. China’s future Internet may include allowing limited access to the forbidden fruits of the Western Internet.

 

Similarly, the hotel the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) put me up in also came with a ‘special Internet account’ where access to usually blocked services was allowed, such as those enabled by my shiny new Xiaomi. However, as I switched off the ‘special account’, the familiar Chinese Internet presented itself and Gmail, Facebook, and Twitter were all blocked.

 

I expect that the future Internet we will all globally experience in the future will encompass an ability to access Chinese versions of Western Internet services, while denying or restricting our ability to use Western Internet technologies which may or may not be surveilled by Western intelligence services.

 

Quite frankly, my experience at China’s World Internet Conference was a positive one. Given the 20 kilometer security exclusion zone I felt very safe, no jihadist terrorists wielding legal semi-automatic weapons in Wuzhen. From a global cyber security researcher perspective, even though I could access both the Chinese and Western versions of the Internet, my experience was actually no different than any of the many other global locations I have visited in the past.

 

While the People’s Republic of China forges forward with a global secure definition of cyberspace which embodies both national security and sovereignty it will be up to other global governments to decide whether to be part of China’s secure Internet party or be left behind.

[1] “八国联军”.  八国联军侵华战争_八国联军为什么侵华_八国联军是哪八国 – 趣历史. Chinese History Topics. (December 2015). (Chinese Internet). Accessed: http://www.qulishi.com/huati/baguolianjun/

[2] Ibid.

[3] “2nd World Internet Conference”. CCTV.com. (December16-18, 2015). (Internet). Accessed: http://english.cntv.cn/special/wic2015/

[4] Ibid.

[5] Ibid.

[6] “Xi: China a staunch defender of cybersecurity”. CCTV.com. September 25, 2015). (Internet). Accessed: http://english.cntv.cn/2015/09/25/VIDE1443125998021193.shtml

[7] “Xi: Efforts should be made to build China into cyber power”. CCTV.com. (February 28th, 2015). (Internet). Accessed: http://english.cntv.cn/program/newshour/20140228/102815.shtml

[8]  “China is home to 670 million Internet users & over 4.13 million websites: President #XiJinping says at #WIC2015. Twitter. (December 15th, 2015). (Internet). Accessed:  https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/676955445286801410

[9] “2nd World Internet Conference concludes”. Xinhua. December18th, 2015). (Internet). Accessed: http://china.org.cn/china/2015-12/18/content_37351052.htm

[10] “Russia’s Kaspersky Labs signs deal with China Cyber Security Company as Beijing and Moscow call for end to US domination of internet”. (December17th, 2015). (Internet). Accessed: http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/1892257/russias-kaspersky-labs-signs-deal-china-cyber-security

Chinese Military View: Strategy of American Cyberspace

Chinese Military View: Strategy of American Cyberspace

中國軍事的看法:美國網絡空間戰略

Author Info:  中校崔建树

 

F201107160907271133257576

Summary: As “artificial space” Cyberspace is the second land, sea, air, space human’s fifth-dimensional space. Reports from the relevant strategy adopted by the United States in recent years, the United States developed a set of cyberspace strategy, including the right to compete for the system network strategy, enabling the network to improve the combat effectiveness of weapons “network-centric warfare” strategy, cyberspace security strategy and the strategic use of cyberspace for his country’s political and ideological penetration. Cyberspace has developed strategic US achieved remarkable results, for which seek a major political, security, economic and military interests. However, the openness of cyberspace also increased the vulnerability of the United States, such as the United States to maintain hegemony in cyberspace developed thousands of computer viruses, so-called “logic bomb”, once mastered by terrorists, the consequences would be disastrous.

Keywords: USA; cyberspace; strategy

Cyberspace (Cyberspace) or, more accurately known as the network of electromagnetic space, is a noun Canadian science fiction writer William Gibson (William Gibson) made in its 1984 publication of the novel “Neuromancer” (Neuromancer), the mean computer information systems and the human nervous system is connected to produce a virtual space. ① with the rapid development of computer technology, sensor technology and networks and grid technology breakthrough, cyberspace has become a new objective in the field of real. “The field of electromagnetic energy to use electronic equipment, grid, and networking hardware and software systems for the physical carrier, information and control information as the main content, by storing the data, modify, and exchange, to achieve the physical system manipulation. ” ② Thus, cyberspace is a new “control domain.” ③ Its various sectors and areas of operation control is as effective as the control of human behavior the human nervous system. As the world’s sole superpower, the United States to maintain its hegemony, naturally will not miss this new “control domain.” ④ to this end, the United States developed a comprehensive strategy for cyberspace. This strategy includes the right to compete for the system network strategy, enabling the network to improve the combat effectiveness of weapons “network-centric warfare” strategy, cyberspace security strategy and the use of cyberspace for his country’s political and ideological penetration strategy.

First, the United States made the right strategic network

The predecessor of the modern Internet is the United States Department of Defense to build the “ARPANET” (ARPA Net). In 1969, the US Department of Defense to ensure that the US critical computer systems in the event of nuclear war still normal operation, ordered their subordinates Advanced Research Projects Agency (Advanced Research Project Agency, ARPA) study computer networking problems. By the late 1970s, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency has established a number of computers on the LAN and put into use. In order to solve communication problems between the LAN, Advanced Research Projects Agency to examine the different LAN WAN link up the formation of a new method, and built a wide area of the computer on the Internet. Since the advent of the Internet, it can be described as a breakthrough in technology by leaps and bounds, the network connection touches every corner of the world, “showing unprecedented strength.” ⑤ especially with the micro-electromechanical systems (micro-electro-mechanism system, MEMS) rapid development, there have been a number of communications and computing power of having micro-sensors. These sensors can always be accurately detected on the detection region by an ad hoc manner, and the detection result transmitted through a wired or wireless network to the implementers. Since the prospect of this technology is unlimited, the US National Science Foundation in 2003 to allocate huge amounts of money, research sensor network technology, the US Department of Defense has set up a series of military sensor network research projects.

Currently, connect the computer and mass sensor network is the nerve of the world has been integrated, and grasp the system network electromagnetic space right is tantamount to control of the world of the nervous system, it’s meaning even more dramatically than the seas of the 19th century, 20th century airpower. Therefore, all the major countries in the world attaches great importance to the network the right to compete for electromagnetic space. Such as Germany in recent years to develop a “German network security strategy,” Britain also issued a “National Cyber Security Strategy.” Although these reports entitled strengthen “cybersecurity”, in fact, prepared to compete for the right network electromagnetic space. In order to firmly grasp the system network electromagnetic space right, the American government can be described as a multi-pronged.

内容提要:作为“人造空间”的网络空间是继陆、海、空、天之后的人类第五维空间。从美国近几年通过的相关战略报告来看,美国制定了一整套网络空间战略,其中包括争夺制网权战略、通过网络赋能提高武器打击效果的“网络中心战”战略、网络空间安全战略以及利用网络空间对他国进行政治和思想渗透的战略。美国制定的网络空间战略已经取得明显效果,为其谋取了重大的政治、安全、经济和军事利益。但是,网络空间的开放性也同样增加了美国的脆弱性,如美国为维持网络空间霸权开发的数千种计算机病毒,即所谓的“逻辑炸弹”,一旦被恐怖分子所掌握,后果将不堪设想。

关 键 词:美国;网络空间;战略

网络空间(Cyberspace)或更准确地称为网络电磁空间,是加拿大科幻小说家威廉·吉布森(William Gibson)在其1984年出版的小说《神经漫游者》(Neuromancer)中提出的名词,意指计算机信息系统与人的神经系统相连接产生出的一种虚拟空间。①随着计算机技术、传感器技术的飞速发展及网络和网格技术的突破,网络空间已成为一个新兴的真实存在的客观领域。“该领域以使用电磁能量的电子设备、网格,以及网络化软硬件系统为物理载体,以信息和对信息的控制力为主要内容,通过对数据的存储、修改和交换,实现对物理系统的操控”。②由此可见,网络空间是一个新兴的“控制域”。③它对各个行业和领域运转的控制就如人的神经系统对人的行为的控制一样有效。作为世界上的唯一超级大国,美国要维护自己的霸权地位,自然不会放过这一新兴的“控制域”。④为此,美国制定了一套完备的网络空间战略。这一战略包括争夺制网权战略、通过网络赋能提高武器打击效果的“网络中心战”战略、网络空间安全战略以及利用网络空间对他国进行政治和思想渗透的战略。

一、美国的制网权战略

现代互联网的前身是美国国防部构建的“阿帕网”(ARPA Net)。1969年,美国国防部为确保美国重要的计算机系统在发生核大战时仍能正常运作,下令其下属的高级研究计划局(Advanced Research Project Agency,ARPA)研究计算机联网问题。到20世纪70年代末期,国防部高级研究计划局又建立了若干个计算机局域网并投入使用。为解决局域网之间的通信问题,高级研究计划局着手研究将不同局域网联结起来形成广域网的新方法,并建成了一个广域的计算机互联网。自互联网问世以来,它在技术方面的突破可谓一日千里,网络连接触及全球的每一个角落,“展现出史无前例的力量”。⑤特别是随着微机电系统(micro-electro-mechanism system,MEMS)的迅速发展,出现了众多具有通信和计算能力的微型传感器。这些传感器可以通过自组方式时时对探测区进行精确探测,并将探测结果通过有线或无线网络传输给实施者。由于这一技术的应用前景无限广阔,美国自然科学基金会于2003年拨出巨资,研究传感器网络技术,美国国防部也设立了一系列军事传感器网络研究项目。

当前,连接计算机和海量传感器的网络是已经融为一体的世界的神经,而掌握住制网络电磁空间权就等于控制了这个世界的神经系统,其意义甚至大大超过19世纪的制海权、20世纪的制空权。所以,世界主要国家无不高度重视对网络电磁空间权的争夺。如德国近几年制定了《德国网络安全战略》,英国也发布了《国家网络安全战略》。这些报告虽然名为加强“网络安全”,实为争夺制网络电磁空间权。为了牢牢把握制网络电磁空间权,美国政府可谓多管齐下。

First, the United States firmly gripping the global Internet DNS rights. Internet domain names corresponding numeric Internet address of the network hierarchy character flags, house number is the online world, has a unique and exclusive features. Since the domain name and corporate name, logo or trademark goods closely linked, the United States could reap significant economic and strategic interests. As in 2000, Shenzhen Kim Ji tower software company, Shanghai AIU Online, Shenzhen China Motion and other companies related to domain names registered by the United States against the company, the result lost both “referee” in the domain name dispute arbitration is “athlete” US companies and economic losses. To control DNS rights, the United States as early as September 1998 on the establishment of the “Internet domain name and address of the Management Company” (ICANN). ICANN board member from the United States, Brazil, Bulgaria, Germany, Japan and other countries, but the US Department of Commerce has the final veto. Conference USA to maintain its control over the domain name, in November 2005, held in Tunis on issues related to the Internet, when he was Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice specifically wrote to the then European Presidency, asking him to support ICANN management of the Internet. The US Congress also to the 423 votes to none passed a resolution demanding the US government to control the Internet. In December 2012, at the World Conference on International Telecommunications in Dubai, UAE, held on the United Arab Emirates submitted a host of Internet governance requires separation of the right to file, was firmly opposed to the United States on behalf of Kramer, claiming that the meeting “to discuss the telecommunications issues, with the Internet is not relevant. ” ⑥

Second, the Internet’s root server control in their own hands. Since the domain name system management mode was root-like distribution, so the root server management plays a decisive role in the domain name, which is state-controlled root server, this country will have enormous power in the Internet field. Presently there are a main root server and 12 deputy root servers. Placed in Dulles, Virginia, USA taproot server by the American company responsible for managing VeriSign. 12 deputy root servers, 9 placed in the United States, the US military to use two, NASA use a. In addition three deputy root server is placed in the hands of Britain, Sweden, Japan and other US allies. In other words, the United States has the root servers direct and indirect control. As long as the United States is willing, just the root servers and secondary domain name server is disconnected, the United States can paralyze a country with hostile Internet system. 2009, should the United States government requirements, Microsoft has cut off Cuba, Syria, Iran, Sudan and North Korea and other five countries of MSN services, resulting in five countries MSN users can not log in to the instant messaging system.

Third, the United States to use its absolute dominance in the network software, hardware manufacturing capacity and technology to reap political benefits. According to the statistics of relevant institutions, worldwide 18 Internet software companies, 10 are US companies, including Microsoft (Microsoft) is the world’s largest software company, the company’s operating system is widely used in personal computers and servers . Cisco (Cisco Systems) is a network hardware leader in the field of production, the company’s routers, switches, repeaters, etc. occupies an important position in the international market. Juniper (Juniper Networks) and Brocade Communications Systems (Brocade Communications Systems) is the world’s leading network equipment manufacturers, its router technology and storage switch technology leader worldwide. Advanced network software, hardware manufacturing technology and strong production capacity is one of the United States compete for hegemony trump network electromagnetic space can be necessary to stop the threat or actual termination of the provision of goods to the opponent, the other stuck in the woods. In addition, major US software companies are closely related with the US government. Under the government’s behest, the US software vendors often on their manufacturing software is embedded with the back door, so that, if necessary, to serve the US political, economic and national security purposes. In 1999, Microsoft’s blockbuster “NSA key” event the United States attempts to steal other countries’ secrets revealed to the world.

首先,美国坚决把持全球互联网的域名解析权。互联网的域名是对应互联网数字地址的层次结构式网络字符标志,是网络世界的门牌号,具有唯一性和排他性的特点。由于域名与企业名称、商品标识或商标紧密相联,美国可以从中谋取重大经济与战略利益。如2000年,深圳金智塔软件公司、上海美亚在线、深圳润迅等公司注册的域名遭到美国相关公司的反对,结果在域名争议仲裁中输给了既是“裁判员”又是“运动员”的美国企业,经济损失惨重。为控制域名解析权,美国早在1998年9月就成立“互联网域名与地址管理公司”(ICANN)。ICANN的董事会成员来自美国、巴西、保加利亚、德国、日本等国家,但美国商务部拥有最终否决权。美国为维持其域名控制权,2005年11月,在突尼斯召开有关互联网问题的会议上,时任国务卿的赖斯专门写信给当时的欧洲轮值主席,要求他支持ICANN管理互联网。美国国会还以423票对0票通过决议,要求美国政府控制互联网。2012年12月,在阿联酋迪拜召开的国际电信世界大会上,东道国阿联酋提交了一份要求分离互联网管理权的文件,遭到美国代表克雷默的坚决反对,声称这次会议“要讨论的是电信问题,跟互联网不相关”。⑥

其次,把互联网根服务器控制在自己手里。由于域名解析系统的管理模式呈根状分布,因此根服务器在域名管理中起着决定性作用,哪个国家控制根服务器,这个国家就会在互联网领域拥有巨大权力。目前全球共有1个主根服务器和12个副根服务器。放置在美国弗吉尼亚州杜勒斯市的主根服务器由美国的VeriSign公司负责管理。12个副根服务器中,有9个放置在美国,美国军方使用2个,美国国家航空航天局使用1个。另外3个副根服务器放置在英国、瑞典、日本等美国盟友手里。换句话说,美国拥有对根服务器的直接和间接控制权。只要美国愿意,只需将根服务器与二级域名服务器断开,美国便可瘫痪某个与之敌对的国家的互联网系统。2009年,应美国政府要求,微软公司曾切断古巴、叙利亚、伊朗、苏丹和朝鲜等五国的MSN服务,导致这五个国家的MSN用户无法登陆该即时通信系统。

第三,美国利用其在网络软件、硬件制造能力和技术方面的绝对优势地位谋取政治利益。据相关机构的统计数据,全世界18个互联网软件公司中,有10个是美国公司,其中微软公司(Microsoft)是世界最大的软件公司,该公司生产的操作系统广泛应用于个人电脑和服务器上。思科公司(Cisco Systems)是网络硬件生产领域的龙头老大,该公司生产的路由器、交换机、中继器等在国际市场上占有重要地位。瞻博网络(Juniper Networks)和博科通信系统(Brocade Communications Systems)是世界著名的网络设备制造商,其路由器技术和存储交换机技术领先全球。先进的网络软、硬件制造技术和强大的生产能力是美国争夺网络电磁空间霸权的王牌之一,必要时可以威胁停止或实际终止向对手提供商品,陷对方于困境。此外,美国的主要软件商与美国政府均有密切关系。在政府的授意下,美国软件商往往在它们制造的软件上嵌有后门,以便在必要时服务于美国的政治、经济和国家安全目的。1999年,轰动一时的微软“NSA密钥”事件让美国窃取别国机密的企图大白于天下。

Fourth, the United States holds the distribution rights worldwide IP addresses. In the online world, the amount of IP addresses in the real world is like the size of a country’s geographic territory. Because the United States controls the assignment of IP addresses, the vast majority of it will be left to its own IP address and its allies of the company and the public use, other countries can only share a little cold leftovers. For example, although China is a big country network, but IPV4 / IPV6 addresses and domain names are on loan from the United States, seriously controlled by others.

Through control of the domain name and address management of the network, along with its superior network software, hardware manufacturing capacity and advanced technology, the United States has firmly hold control over the Internet. Nevertheless, the US still has a strong sense of urgency. US Department of Defense in 2006 issued a report, “Although the United States is currently in the electromagnetic field of space to enjoy the advantages of the network, but these advantages are being eroded …… and other combat areas, the American network have equal shares of the electromagnetic field of space and opponents fear” . ⑦

In order to further strengthen the US hegemony in cyberspace, the US government multi-pronged approach. In the military field, the US Defense Department network and electromagnetic space regarded as land, sea, air, space similar fifth area, and that the control system network right to maintain its hegemony in the other four areas are of decisive significance. In the 2004 release of “National Military Strategy” report, the US Department of Defense that “the United States armed forces must have the whole sky, land, sea, space and electromagnetic space to expand the network capacity to act.” ⑧ 2006, the US military released the “National Network of electromagnetic space military strategy.” The purpose of the strategy is to ensure that the US “freedom of action in this highly competitive field, while depriving the freedom of movement of our competitors”, ⑨ namely “to ensure US military dominance in the network of electromagnetic space.” ⑨ The document proposes to strengthen in four areas: (1) obtain and maintain the initiative in the competition advantage in the decision-making cycle. US troops should use the Internet to shorten the decision cycle of electromagnetic space, while weakening the decision-making cycle competitors. It needs to maintain a strong network defense, while taking advantage of the weakness of competitors electromagnetic space network, find out competitors weaknesses and defense decision-making cycle. (2) use the Internet so that the whole field of electromagnetic space to further integrate the military capabilities of military operations. DoD various departments must be integrated network electromagnetic space even more delicate. Operational commanders must be closely coordinated with the various support units and defense agencies, and maximize combat, carry out military operations. Although the combat troops to be deployed in various war zones, but they must cooperate with existing military operations, and various government departments, the joint command departments, allied and industrial partners to achieve seamless. (3) construction of the network capacity for action. Including the continuous training of personnel, infrastructure and organization. By wealthy aggressive testing, exercises and continuous improvement, and create new network capacity to act. Risk (4) Management Network electromagnetic space operations. ⑩

第四,美国掌握着全球IP地址的分配权。在网络世界,IP地址的多寡犹如现实世界中一个国家地理版图的大小。由于美国控制了IP地址的分配,它将绝大多数的IP地址留给本国及其盟国的公司和民众使用,其他国家只能分得一点残羹冷炙。例如中国虽是网络大国,但IPV4/IPV6的地址和域名是从美国租借来的,严重受制于人。

通过掌控网络的域名与地址管理,再加上它超强的网络软、硬件制造能力与先进技术,美国已经牢牢掌握着国际互联网的控制权。尽管如此,美国仍然具有强烈的忧患意识。美国国防部2006年出台的报告中称,“尽管美国目前在网络电磁空间领域享有优势,但这些优势正在受到侵蚀……与其他作战领域不同,美国在网络电磁空间领域有与对手平分秋色之虞”。⑦

为进一步强化美国在网络空间领域的霸主地位,美国政府多管齐下。在军事领域,美国国防部将网络电磁空间视作与陆、海、空、天同类的第五个领域,并认为掌握制网权对维持其在其他四个领域内的霸权具有决定性意义。在2004年发布的《国家军事战略》报告中,美国国防部提出“美国武装部队必须拥有在整个天空、陆地、海洋、太空和网络电磁空间展开行动的能力”。⑧2006年,美军发布《国家网络电磁空间军事行动战略》。这项战略的宗旨是确保美军“在这个激烈竞争的领域行动自由,同时剥夺我们竞争对手的行动自由”,⑨即“确保美国在网络电磁空间的军事优势”。⑨该文件提出要在四个方面加强建设:(1)在竞争对手决策周期里获取和维持主动行动优势。美军官兵应利用网络电磁空间缩短决策周期,同时削弱竞争对手的决策周期。这需要维持一个强大的网络防御,同时利用竞争对手的网络电磁空间的弱点,搞清竞争对手的决策周期和防御弱点。(2)利用网络电磁空间使整个军事行动领域进一步整合军事能力。国防部的各个部门必须将网络电磁空间整合得更加精致。作战指挥人员必须与支援部队和国防部的各个机构紧密协同,最大程度地提高战斗力,遂行军事行动。尽管作战部队被部署在各个不同战区,但他们必须与现存的军事行动相配合,与不同政府部门、联合指挥部门、盟军及工业伙伴实现无缝对接。(3)建设网络行动能力。包括持续不断地培训人员、基础设施和组织机构。通过富有进攻性的测试、演习以及不断改良,创造新的网络行动能力。(4)管理网络电磁空间行动的风险。⑩

In fact, long before the promulgation of these documents, the United States had begun to train cyber warfare electromagnetic space warfare capability. According to reports, in June 1995, the US 16 “the first generation of cyberspace warfare warrior” graduated from the National Defense University. In the same year on October 1, the US military in South Carolina State Air Force Base set up the first network of electromagnetic space warfare units, namely the 9th Air Force 609 Squadron. October 1998, the US Defense Department official will be included in the information war fighting doctrine, also approved the establishment of “computer network defense joint special forces.” In early 2006, the US Air Force to establish research networks electromagnetic space problem “network special group”, the special assistant to the Air Force Chief of Staff Dr. Lani Kass headed. With the end, the Air Force officially announced the establishment of a temporary network electromagnetic Space Command 8,000 people, Robert · J. Elder will serve as commander of the post. (11) in 2007, the US Air Force to rely on the 8th Air Force, the Air Force set up a network of electromagnetic space Warfare Command, the Navy has set up a “Navy computer emergency response unit,” West Point established a network of electromagnetic Space Science Center. In 2009, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced the formal establishment of the “network of electromagnetic Space Warfare Command,” the US National Security director Keith Alexander will be nominated as commander. According to the US Deputy Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter said in the Aspen Security Forum, held July 18, 2013, the US network forces to be deployed in place. (12) This indicates that the United States has sounded the clarion call to compete for hegemony in cyberspace.

Leading cyberspace requires more advanced than in other countries “in cyberspace arms.” “Cyberspace weapon” belongs to the new concept weapons category, the current world’s major countries are all invested heavily in research and development of such weapons. According to data disclosed by the United States Institute of Technology analysis, the current world investment in electromagnetic weapons in space network has more than 1.7 trillion US dollars. (13) The United States is a pioneer in the development of cyberspace arms and leader. As the Air Force is promoting “Cyber aircraft” (Cybercraft) project aims to develop a kind of reconnaissance for the first time able to rival the network of electromagnetic space combat weapons intent. (14) According to the report disclosed, the concept of cyberspace combat aircraft is very advanced, it can be installed in any electronic medium, you can take the initiative to all software and hardware devices Ping scanning, port scanning, OS identification, vulnerability scanning and enumeration ensure operational commanders to the entire network capable of electromagnetic space, small to any computer instantaneously perception and control. (15) in May 2008, the US government launched a more ambitious program – “Cyber Range” (NCR) program. This program is known as America’s “electronic Manhattan Project” in an attempt by developing “revolutionary” new technology, to win the network electromagnetic space this “space race.”

实际上,早在这些文件颁布之前,美国就已开始着手培养网络战电磁空间战能力。据报道,1995年6月,美军16名“第一代网络空间战战士”从美国国防大学毕业。同年10月1日,美军在南卡罗来纳州空军基地组建了第一支网络电磁空间战部队,即第9航空队第609中队。1998年10月,美国国防部正式将信息战列入作战条令,同时批准成立“计算机网络防御联合特种部队”。2006年初,美国空军建立研究网络电磁空间问题的“网络特别小组”,由空军参谋长特别助理拉尼·卡斯博士任组长。同年底,美国空军正式宣布成立一个8,000人的临时网络电磁空间司令部,罗伯特·J.埃尔德中将担任司令之职。(11)2007年,美国空军以第8航空队为依托,组建了空军网络电磁空间战司令部,海军也组建了“海军计算机应急反应分队”,西点军校成立了网络电磁空间科学中心。2009年,美国国防部部长盖茨宣布正式成立“网络电磁空间战司令部”,美国国家安全局长基思·亚历山大上将被提名担任司令。据美国国防部副部长阿什顿·卡特在2013年7月18日举行的阿斯彭安全论坛上称,美国网军即将部署到位。(12)这标志着美国已经吹响了争夺网络空间霸权的号角。

主导网络空间需要有比其他国家先进的“网络空间武器”。“网络空间武器”属于新概念武器范畴,当前世界主要国家无不投入巨资研究开发这种武器。据美国技术分析研究所披露的数据,目前世界各国在网络电磁空间武器方面的投入已超过1.7万亿美元。(13)美国是网络空间武器研制的先驱与引领者。如美国空军正在推进“赛博飞机”(Cybercraft)项目,旨在研制出一种能在第一时间侦察到对手在网络电磁空间里的作战意图的武器。(14)据有关报告披露,网络空间飞机的作战理念非常先进,它可以安装在任何电子介质中,能主动对所有软件和硬件设备进行Ping扫描、端口扫描、操作系统辨识、漏洞扫描和查点,保证作战指挥员能对大到整个网络电磁空间,小到任意一台计算机进行瞬间感知与控制。(15)2008年5月,美国政府启动了一项更加雄心勃勃的计划——“赛博靶场”(NCR)计划。这一计划号称美国的“电子曼哈顿工程”,企图通过研发“革命性”的新技术,来赢得网络电磁空间这一“太空竞赛”。

Second, the use of cyberspace technology based on the “network-centric warfare,” the Defense Transformation Strategy

Construction on the Internet beginning of the formation, the relevant departments and think tanks on the United States is keenly aware of the great military significance of the Internet, recognizing that future US military strategy must adapt to the development of information technology. August 1, 1995, US Army Training and Doctrine Command issued a report entitled “information warfare” concept “525-69 Handbook”, proposed to all dimensions (land, sea, air, space) space combat and battlefield systems (command and control systems, mobile systems, fire support system) with a data link connection together to establish shared situational awareness coupled with continuous operational capability “of the 21st century force” so that they can more quickly than the enemy, the more accurate reconnaissance, develop decisions into action. (16) in October 1998, the US military issued a “Joint Information Operations doctrine,” said information warfare is the impact of the enemy’s information and information systems, and to protect one’s own information and information systems …… information advantage is the use of information and prevent enemy use capability information. (17)

May 25, 2001, former US President George W. Bush delivered a speech at the US Naval Academy graduation ceremony, stressed that “we must take advantage of the revolutionary advances in warfare technology to build our army, so that we can define our way of war to the maintenance of peace. We are committed to build a mainly mobility and quickness rather than size and number to measure the strength of the future army, build an easier to deploy and security forces, and build a greater reliance on precision-guided weapons and stealth and IT forces. ” (18) about George W. Bush proposed the construction of digital force requirements, the US Congress and the Defense Department put forward a defense to rely on IT transformation program.

US Defense Transformation’s goal is to use the network forming, so that the physical limits of technology has now reached the weaponry to combat multiplier effect. Exercise USAF F-15C aircraft organizations perform aerial combat missions showed that the kill rate using data link F-15C aircraft, increased by more than 1 times. The reason is that “the use of tactical data link enables pilots greatly improved the perception of the battle space, resulting in enhanced combat effectiveness.” (19) forming the premise can use the Internet is to strengthen national defense information infrastructure. As well-developed highway transportation extending in all directions, like inseparable, to obtain information superiority, is also inseparable from nothing is to the broadband network. In January 1993, the Clinton administration issued the “National Information Infrastructure: Action Plan” document, proposed the establishment of high-speed fiber-optic communications network in the United States, namely the “information superhighway”, to every office and home network connections are used to form easily accessible information superhighway. After starting the “information superhighway” Soon, the US military has begun to design national defense information infrastructure (DII) construction. 1995, the US military C4I concept proposed to start the Defense Information Infrastructure Common Operating Environment (DII-COE) construction, is intended to provide timely and accurate safety information for military action. In 1996, the US military further proposed various types of reconnaissance, surveillance, sensor integration, breaking the military services between the “chimney” lined situation, construction command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems (C4ISR), real “From sensor to shooter” combat capability.

US Department of Defense in promoting the construction of a military network bandwidth while also developing Information Grid (Grid) (20) technology. In 1999, the US Department of Defense proposed the building of “Global Information Grid” (Global Information Grid, GIG). In 2003, the Ministry has announced a “Global Information Grid Architecture” (version 2.0), with the Defense Information Systems Network Planning (DISN) as the backbone to integrate the services of the US military information system, built in line with “Global Information Grid” requirement The “system of systems” formula common operating environment (GIG SOS-COE). At present, “Global Information Grid” bandwidth expansion plan (GIG-BE) has been completed, nearly 100 backbone nodes to achieve a seamless broadband high-speed Internet. 2008, the US Defense Information Infrastructure will extend from the narrow to the broad field of cognitive domain information, information from a network domain to electromagnetic fields (Cyber) across.

二、利用网络空间技术实现基于“网络中心战”的国防转型战略

在因特网构建形成之初,美国相关部门和智库就敏锐地意识到因特网的巨大军事意义,认识到美国未来的军事战略必须适应信息技术的发展。1995年8月1日,美国陆军训练与条令司令部颁发了题为《信息战概念》的《525-69手册》,提出将所有维度(海、陆、空、天)的作战空间和战场系统(指挥控制系统、机动系统、火力支援系统)用数据链连接起来,建立态势感知共享加上具有连续作战能力的“21世纪部队”,使之能够比敌人更迅速、更精准地实施侦察、制定决策、展开行动。(16)1998年10月,美军发布了《信息作战联合条令》,称信息战就是影响敌方的信息和信息系统,并保护己方的信息和信息系统……信息优势就是使用信息并阻止敌人使用信息的能力。(17)

2001年5月25日,美国前总统小布什在美国海军学院毕业典礼上发表讲话,强调“我们必须利用战争技术的革命性进步来建设我们的军队,使我们能用我们所定义的战争方式来维护和平。我们将致力于建设一支主要以机动性和快速性而非规模和人数来衡量实力的未来军队,建设一支更易于部署和保障的军队,建设一支更依赖于隐身精确制导武器和信息技术的军队”。(18)围绕小布什提出的建设数字化部队的要求,美国国会和国防部提出了以信息技术为依托的国防转型计划。

美国国防转型的目标是利用网络赋能,使目前已达到物理技术极限的武器装备打击效果倍增。美国空军组织的F-15C飞机执行空中对抗任务的演习表明,使用数据链的F-15C飞机的杀伤率提高了1倍以上。原因是“战术数据链的使用使飞行员极大地提高了对作战空间的感知,最终导致了战斗力的增强”。(19)利用网络赋能的前提是加强国防信息基础设施建设。就如发达的交通离不开四通八达的高速公路一样,要取得信息优势,也离不开无所不至的宽带网络。1993年1月,克林顿政府出台《国家信息基础设施:行动计划》文件,提出在美国建立高速光纤通信网,即“信息高速公路”,把每一个办公室和家庭都用网络连接起来,形成四通八达的信息高速公路。在启动“信息高速公路”后不久,美国军方也开始着手设计国防信息基础设施(DII)建设。1995年,美军提出C4I概念,启动国防信息基础设施公共操作环境(DII-COE)建设,意在为军事行动提供及时、准确的安全信息。1996年,美国军方进一步提出对各类侦察、监视传感器进行整合,打破军种之间“烟囱”林立的状况,建设指挥、控制、通信、计算机、情报、监视和侦察系统(C4ISR),真正实现“从传感器到射手”的作战能力。

美国国防部在推进军用网络带宽建设的同时,还在大力发展信息网格(Grid)(20)技术。1999年,美国防部提出建设“全球信息网格”(Global Information Grid,GIG)。2003年,该部又公布了《全球信息网格体系结构》(2.0版),规划以国防信息系统网(DISN)为骨干整合美军各军种的军事信息系统,建成符合“全球信息网格”要求的“系统之系统”式公共操作环境(GIG SOS-COE)。目前“全球信息网格”带宽扩展计划(GIG-BE)已完成,近100个骨干节点实现了无缝宽带高速互联。2008年,美军将国防信息基础设施从狭义信息域扩展到广义认知域,实现从信息域到网络电磁域(Cyber)的跨越。

IT as the US military will support the transformation of the armed forces, which means the network as the core of military transformation, from a “platform-centric” to “network-centric” transformation. Network-centric warfare concept first proposed by the American Arthur Cheb Petrovsky and John Garstka. (21) They “Network Centric Warfare: The Origins and Future” in an article that, in the 20th century, humanity has entered a new era of war, “society has changed, potential economic and technology has changed, American business has changed if the US military does not change, we should be surprised and shocked. ” (twenty two)

“Network Centric Warfare” concept put forward by the two authors was quickly adopted by the US official. In 2002, the US Department of Defense submitted to the “Network Centric Warfare” (Network-Centric Warfare) report to Congress, proposed Defense Transformation Network Centric Warfare as a guide. The report said, “network-centric forces are able to create and use an information advantage to dramatically improve the combat effectiveness of troops, it can improve the ability of the Department of Defense to maintain global peace and the need to restore stability to assume its tasks dominant position “in all types of military operations. (twenty three)

Core network-centric warfare is to war physical domain, information domain and cognitive domain “network.” (24) Compared with the platform-centric warfare, network centric warfare has incomparable advantages.

First, the network-centric warfare make the battlefield transparent. Outcome of the war does not depend on who put the most money, manpower and technology put on the battlefield, but rather who has the best information about the battlefield. Since (25) For centuries, there has been war uncertainty and resistance, making it difficult to predict war, Clausewitz called the “fog of war”, and now finally able to gradually uncover the layers of fog. (26)

Second, network-centric warfare can greatly improve the firepower effect. Platform-centric blow process, the ability to detect and combat together under one platform, and a platform for the ability to obtain information from the other platforms and then carry out combat missions based on very limited. And network-centric warfare, the fighting is fueled by increased capacity, improve the quality and timeliness of information flow between networks. Increase the flow of information is critical battle space perception can be shared and improving information accuracy. Network after partial image of each unit consisting of a complete summary of operational space diagram, and then transferred immediately to the decision scheme weapon against the system, greatly improving the efficiency of the weapon system.

Third, network-centric warfare has greatly enhanced the efficiency of command. Under normal circumstances, the operations process consists of the following elements: probe target, identify the target, hit the target to make decisions, the decision to transfer arms, weapons, aim and fire. This process, play a decisive role from target detection to fire the reaction time and firepower range. The reaction time depends on the role of distance sensors and weapons, time kill radius of weapons, communications and information processing needs, and make the decision to spend time. Platform-centric weapons systems, linkages between the various weapons systems by voice to achieve, not the direct command of weapons engagement; and in network-centric warfare, perception, command, control, and the ability of warring and so on through the “robustness” The digital data link connection to a network, the capacity of the flow of information between network nodes, the quality and timeliness greatly improve the combat effectiveness of the weapon system.

美军将信息技术作为军队转型的支撑,也就意味着将网络作为军队转型的核心,实现从“以平台为中心”向“以网络为中心”转型。网络中心战概念最早由美国人阿瑟·切布罗夫斯基和约翰·加斯特卡提出。(21)他们在《网络中心战:起源与未来》一文中认为,在20世纪末人类进入了一个新的战争时代,“社会业已变化,潜在的经济和技术业已改变,美国的商业也发生了变化,如果美国的军事不发生变化,我们就应该诧异和震惊了”。(22)

两位作者提出的“网络中心战”概念被美国官方迅速采纳。2002年,美国国防部向国会提交《网络中心战》(Network-Centric Warfare)报告,提出将网络中心战作为国防转型的指南。该报告称,“以网络为中心的部队是一支能够创造并利用信息优势,从而大幅度提高战斗力的部队,它能够提高国防部维护全球和平的能力,并在需要其担负恢复稳定的任务时在所有各种类型的军事行动中占据优势地位”。(23)

网络中心战的核心是将战争中的物理域、信息域和认知域“网络化”。(24)与平台中心战相比,网络中心战具有无可比拟的优点。

首先,网络中心战使战场透明化。战争的胜负并非取决于谁把最多的资金、人力和技术投放到战场上,而在于谁拥有有关战场的最佳信息。(25)几个世纪以来,战争中一直存在不确定性和阻力,使得战争难以预测,克劳塞维茨称之为“战争的迷雾”,而现在终于能逐步揭开这层迷雾了。(26)

第二,网络中心战能够极大地提高火力打击效果。以平台为中心的打击过程,探测和打击能力同归于一个平台,而一个平台基于从其他平台获得信息进而遂行打击任务的能力非常有限。而以网络为中心的作战中,战斗力提高的动力源自网络之间信息流的容量、质量和实时性的提高。信息流的增加是作战空间感知得以共享和提高信息精确性的关键。网络将各个单元的局部图像汇总后组成一幅完整的作战空间图,然后再将决策方案立即传送至武器打击系统,大大提高了武器系统的效率。

第三,网络中心战大大提高了指挥效率。通常情况下,作战过程由以下几个要素组成:探测目标、识别目标、作出打击目标的决策、把决策传送给武器、武器瞄准和开火。这一过程中,起决定作用的是从探测目标到开火的反应时间和火力打击范围。反应时间取决于传感器和武器的作用距离、武器的杀伤半径、通信和信息处理所需要的时间,以及做出决策花费的时间。以平台为中心的武器系统,各武器系统之间的联系靠话音来实现,不能直接指挥武器进行交战;而在网络中心战中,感知、指挥、控制以及交战等各项能力通过“鲁棒”的数字数据链路连接成网络,网络节点之间信息流的容量、质量和实时性极大地提高了武器系统的战斗力。

Fourth, to save resources. In the era of mechanized warfare, because the relatively low level of information sharing, the various branches of weapons and equipment are loosely organized together, the main operations center in each platform and expand, the lack of effective communication and coordination mechanism between them. Therefore, in the development of equipment development, mechanized warfare is more concerned about the construction of weapons platforms, emphasizing weaponry itself to each generation longer range detection broader, better mobility, protection stronger, rather than emphasizing weapons and equipment in various branches of information detection, firepower, protection and other aspects of the battlefield lateral complementary collaboration. In order to meet the various needs of battlefield environment, mechanized warfare requires a single platform should also have multiple complex combat system with air and sea, the potential early warning, surveillance, detection and far, short-range strike capability and protection capacity, and all of these functions due to lack of information and the main coordination mechanism for their own services, causing great waste. Meanwhile, the upgrading of platform-centric weapons systems, weapons platforms make increasingly large and more complex. Network Centric Warfare in the Information Age is completely different, it emphasizes the grid in the framework of the various branches of military hardware strike weapons, sensors, communications equipment and support equipment and other integration as a whole, combined into a super-scale precision weapons, implementation of the system and the system, against the system and the system as a whole.

Comprehensive US troops from the Cold War so far the introduction of the strategic planning report and the army, the US military is increasing access to network electromagnetic spatial information efforts. As in the late 1990s when the proposed C4ISR, the US network of electromagnetic space requirement is to provide four “arbitrary” for combat, that is, any time, any information, any place, any person. And when in 2003 started the construction of the Global Information Grid is designed to allow network electromagnetic space provides five “proper”, that the right time, the right place, the right information, the right form, the right people. By 2008, the US also proposed the establishment of a network through electromagnetic space environment, to achieve the “three global capacity”, that global warning capabilities, global reach capabilities and global operational capabilities, to achieve full spectrum advantage. Thus, the United States will make every effort to expand the use of the network enabling the US military’s combat strength, to maintain American military hegemony.

第四,节省资源。在机械化战争时代,由于信息共享水平比较低,各军兵种武器装备都是松散地组织在一起,作战行动主要以各自平台为中心而展开,相互之间缺乏有效的信息沟通和协作机制。因此,在装备研制发展上,机械化战争更多的是关注武器平台的建设,强调武器装备本身要一代比一代射程更远、探测范围更广、机动性更好、防护能力更强,而不是强调各军兵种武器装备在信息探测、火力打击、战场防护等方面的横向互补、协同。为适应各种不同的战场环境需要,机械化战争要求单一平台要同时具备多个复杂的战斗系统,具有对空、对海、对潜在预警、侦察、探测和远、中、近程打击能力和防护能力等,而所有这些功能由于缺乏信息协作机制而主要为自己服务,造成极大浪费。同时,以平台为中心的武器系统的更新换代,使武器平台越来越庞大,越来越复杂。信息化时代的网络中心战完全不同,它强调在军事网格的框架下把各军兵种软硬件打击武器、传感器、通信设备和保障装备等融合为一个整体,组合成一台超级规模的精密武器,实施体系与体系、系统与系统的整体对抗。

综合美军从冷战结束到目前为止出台的战略报告和建军规划来看,美军正在不断加大获取网络电磁空间信息的力度。如在上世纪90年代末提出C4ISR时,美军的要求是网络电磁空间能为作战提供四个“任意”,即任意时间、任意信息、任意地点、任意人。而2003年启动全球信息网格时建设则旨在让网络电磁空间提供五个“恰当”,即恰当时间、恰当地点、恰当信息、恰当形式、恰当人。到2008年,美军又提出通过建立网络电磁空间环境,实现“三个全球能力”,即全球警戒能力、全球到达能力和全球作战能力,达成全谱优势。由此可见,美国将会竭尽全力利用网络赋能来拓展美军的作战实力,维护美国的军事霸权。

Third, the US cyberspace security strategy

Geographically, the United States is two foreign countries, the security environment is very favorable. However, the development of network technology is superior to the American tradition of the security environment and constitute a real challenge. Since computer networks after commercial operation, industrial manufacturing, utilities, banking and other areas of the US communications network to connect all computers and controlled by the United States and other areas of diplomacy and defense are highly confidential full realization of the network, resulting in American society computer network to form a highly dependencies. It can be said, “No country in the world like the United States is so dependent on the network.” (27)

The United States is highly dependent on the network provides an unprecedented opportunity for America’s opponents. Through network attacks caused unimaginable destruction. If the “cut off power and water through the network,” the entire United States would “paralyze”:.. “Then everything stopped, railway connections and traffic lights do not work without electricity, but also get information which will cause people’s life . This is not a great impact bomb, but the bomb is similar to the effect produced – everything is closed. ” (28)

First, cyber crime against the United States continues to rise. Since the commercialization of the Internet, cyber crime showed rapid growth trend, especially for network hacker attacks even more so. The original purpose of hackers to launch cyber attacks is the purpose of self-presentation, namely by identifying network vulnerabilities and the attacks to achieve self-sufficiency. However, as the economy becomes network, hacker attacks more in order to obtain illegal interests for the purpose. Hackers from the “play” to become a ‘big business’, it takes only $ 400, you can buy one on the Internet, “crime package”, to steal other people’s bank accounts and credit card numbers. According to the study, worldwide each year due to loss of network attack suffered about 5,000 billion US dollars, the cost of crime generated by the network up to 3,880 billion US dollars, more than the world’s heroin, cocaine and cannabis market all combined. (29) in 2005, the largest US credit card The company, one of MasterCard’s 40 million users of banking information is acquired by hackers, causing the largest US credit card user information leak case. 2005 to 2007, Albert Gonzalez and a man named “shadow team” Teamwork hacker penetrated include TJ Maxx, Barnes, Noble and BJ including retail giant database, obtaining 180 million payment account access, these companies resulted in more than 400 million US dollars in economic losses. (30) According to US industry estimates, the 2008 data theft and infringement of intellectual property rights to the United States caused by the loss of up to $ 1 trillion. (31)

Second, the network of terrorist activities against the United States poses a great threat in cyberspace. As the network has become the most important human information dissemination and communication tools, terrorist organizations will also spread its tentacles into the network, make full use of the network of privacy, anonymity and across time and space characteristics, to implement terrorist recruitment and training programs . For example, the world’s largest terrorist organization “base” organization in recent years to take advantage of the network to carry out terrorist activities. According to the US Institute of Peace in Washington researcher Gabriel Weinmann observed, “In the traditional site of discussions and forums area can be found al-Qaida elements. 7 years ago, they are about 12 Internet sites. Since the ‘base’ Organization members have been expelled from Afghanistan later, to some extent, they have found refuge on the Internet. They added one, two or even 50 sites “Every day. Statistics US Treasury Bureau of Information said, “base” organization has about 4,000 online sites. “(32) terrorist organizations use network behavior aroused the attention of the American government department. In early 2005, the FBI asked to be alert terrorist organizations to recruit engineers from the Internet. In July, the US government should request, Pakistani authorities arrested the “base” organization computer expert Naeem Noor Mohammad Khan.

三、美国网络空间安全战略

从地理上看,美国是两洋国家,安全环境相当优越。但是,网络技术的发展对美国传统的优越安全环境构成了现实挑战。自从计算机网络实现商业化运营以后,美国的工业制造、公用事业、银行和通讯等领域全部由计算机网络连接和控制,美国的外交与国防等高度机密的领域也全面实现了网络化,导致美国社会对计算机网络形成高度的依赖关系。可以说,“世界上还没有哪个国家像美国这样如此依赖网络”。(27)

美国对网络的高度依赖为美国的对手提供了前所未有的机会。通过网络发动袭击造成的破坏令人难以想象。如果“通过网络切断电源和水源”,整个美国就会“陷入瘫痪”:“届时一切停止运转,铁路连接和红绿灯都不起作用。没有电,也得不到信息。这将给民众的生活造成很大影响。这虽然不是核弹,但产生的效果与核弹相似——一切都被关闭”。(28)

首先,针对美国的网络犯罪持续攀升。自从互联网商业化以来,网络犯罪便呈快速增长之势,特别是黑客对网络发动的攻击更是如此。最初的黑客发动网络袭击的目的多是为了自我展示,即通过发现网络漏洞并对之发动攻击来实现自我满足。但是,随着经济生活越来越网络化,黑客攻击更多以获取非法利益为目的。黑客已从“玩玩”发展成为一个‘‘大行业”,只要花上400美元,就可以在网上买一个“犯罪包”,以窃取别人的银行账户和信用卡密码。据研究,全世界每年因网络攻击遭受的损失约有5,000亿美元,由网络犯罪产生的成本高达3,880亿美元,比全球海洛因、可卡因和大麻市场全部加起来还要多。(29)2005年,美国最大信用卡公司之一的万事达公司4,000万用户的银行资料被黑客获取,酿成美国最大规模信用卡用户信息泄密案。2005至2007年,阿尔伯特·冈萨雷斯和一个名叫“影子团队”的黑客团队合作,侵入包括TJ Maxx、Barnes、Noble和BJ在内的零售业巨头的数据库,获取1.8亿支付账户的访问权,给这些公司造成了4亿多美元的经济损失。(30)据美国业界估计,2008年的数据失窃和知识产权受到侵犯给美国造成的损失高达1万亿美元。(31)

其次,网络恐怖活动对美国的网络空间造成巨大威胁。随着网络成为人类最重要的信息传播方式和交流工具,恐怖组织也将触角伸向了网络,充分利用网络的隐密性、匿名性和跨时空的特点,来实施恐怖分子的招聘和培训计划。例如,全球最大的恐怖组织“基地”组织近年来就充分利用网络实施恐怖活动。据美国华盛顿和平研究所研究员加布里埃尔·魏曼的观察,“在传统网站的讨论和论坛区都能发现‘基地’组织分子。7年前他们在网上大约有12个站点。自从‘基地’组织成员被驱逐出阿富汗以后,从某种程度来说,他们在因特网上找到了避难所。他们每天增加1个、2个甚至50个网站”。美国信息报务局的统计数据称,“基地”组织在网上有大约4,000个站点”。(32)恐怖组织利用网络的行为引起美国政府部门的重视。2005年初,美国联邦调查局提出要警惕恐怖组织从网上招募工程师。同年7月,应美国政府要求,巴基斯坦当局逮捕了“基地”组织电脑专家穆罕默德·纳伊姆·努尔汗。

Third, the United States Government to collect foreign intelligence through the network, to pose a challenge to US national security. In 2007, the US Defense Department, State Department, Homeland Security, Ministry of Commerce, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the National Defense and other departments have been large-scale invasion. In the invasion, the US defense secretary e-mail or even cracks, the Ministry of Defence were stolen “millions of bytes” of information, launcher design NASA also been maliciously modified, the Commerce Department also was forced off its network belongs Bureau of Industry and Security connections for several months, causing serious compromised. (33)

Fourth, the US network competitors may launch cyber warfare. And several network security threats described earlier, this kind of threat is more serious. In launching cyber attacks, the United States is the instigator. Back in the 1980s, the United States against the Soviet Union had launched a similar “attack.” Then the lack of control of its long-range Soviet oil and natural gas pipeline network of automatic pump and valve control technology. Since the Soviet Union embargo by Western countries, the official was unable to purchase through normal channels to the relevant products. Thus, the Soviet government would purchase this task to the Soviet KGB intelligence service to complete. After US intelligence agencies informed the KGB procurement plan, secretly let a Canadian company to undertake business. KGB successful completion of the procurement task, but it absolutely did not think that the CIA has implanted malicious code in its procurement of goods and software. The pipeline system runs a few months after the installation is completed, the United States launched the malicious code, so that the pipeline at the same time, a pump running at full speed all the valves closed pipeline, resulting in pipeline explosion, the entire piping system is permanently damage. Although the United States temporarily networks dominate, but now it’s network vulnerability has not be overlooked. US software programming engineer John Martelli found that US “industrial control computer system, water and electricity networks of the class are automatically linked like …… This proves, in some cases, we are exposed to the sun , hackers can easily attack us. ” (34)

Given the extreme importance of the network to US national security, in order to prevent the “Network Pearl Harbor” occurred (Cyber Pearl Harbor) events, from the Clinton administration, the United States adopted a series of measures to ensure that the United States of network security.

First, the US government cybersecurity strategies into national security strategy areas, to enhance network security awareness of network security status and population strategy. 1998, Clinton issued “critical infrastructure protection” Presidential Decree (PDD-63), the first clear concept of network security strategy. The report notes that although the United States is the world’s most powerful countries, but more and more dependent on “the importance of those countries as well as the physical properties of computer-based systems and assets once they are damaged or destroyed, will the country security, national economic security and national public health and health care have a devastating impact. ” (35) in December 2000, Clinton signed the “National Security Strategy in the Age of Globalization” file, the network security as an important part of the national security strategy. (36) in January 2009, shortly after Obama became US president, will according to the US Strategic and International Studies Center, “to ensure that any new president within the network of electromagnetic space security” to submit a special report, proposed in October 1957 as the Soviet Union launched the first Sputnik as holding a similar referendum discussion, raise the American public network electromagnetic space security awareness. (37) After due deliberation, the US government in 2011 focused on the introduction of a number of reports on network electromagnetic space security, the more important the “network authentication electromagnetic space credible national strategy” (National Strategy for Trusted Identities in Cyberspace, March 2011), “Network electromagnetic space International Strategy” (International Strategy for Cyberspace, 2011, May 2007), “DoD networks electromagnetic space action strategy” (Department of Defense Strategy for Operating in Cyberspace, 2011 July 2009) and “DoD networks electromagnetic space policy report” (Department of Defense Cyberspace Policy Report, 2011 November 2003). These reports are all involved in the network of electromagnetic space security strategy.

第三,外国政府通过网络收集美国情报,对美国的国家安全构成挑战。2007年,美国国防部、国务院、国土安全部、商务部、国家航空航天局和国防大学等部门均遭到大规模入侵。在入侵中,美国国防部长的电子信箱甚至被破解,国防部则被窃走“数百万字节”的信息,航空航天局的发射器设计也被恶意修改,商务部还被迫断开与其所属工业与安全局的网络连接达数月之久,造成严重失密。(33)

第四,竞争对手有可能对美国网络发动网络战。和前文所述的几种网络安全威胁相比,这种威胁更为严重。在发动网络袭击方面,美国是始作俑者。早在上世纪80年代,美国就曾对苏联发动过类似的“袭击”。那时苏联缺乏控制其远距离石油、天然气管道输送网的自动泵和阀门的控制技术。由于苏联受西方国家禁运,官方无法通过正规渠道采购到相关产品。于是,苏联政府将这项采购任务交给苏联的情报部门克格勃来完成。美国情报部门获知克格勃的采购计划后,暗中让一家加拿大公司承接业务。克格勃顺利完成了采购任务,但它绝没有想到的是,美国中央情报局已在其采购的产品软件中植入了恶意代码。这一管道系统在安装完成运行几个月后,美国启动了恶意代码,让管道中的某个泵在全速运行的同时关闭了管道的所有阀门,结果造成管道大爆炸,整个管道系统受到永久性破坏。别看美国一时网络称霸,但目前它的网络脆弱性已经不容小视。美国软件编程工程师约翰·马特利发现,美国的“工业控制电脑的系统,类似于水厂和电力网之类被自动连接在一起……这证明在某些情况下,我们是暴露在阳光下的,那些黑客很容易就能攻击我们”。(34)

鉴于网络对美国国家安全的极端重要性,为防止“网络珍珠港”(Cyber Pearl Harbor)事件的发生,从克林顿政府起,美国就采取一系列措施,确保美国的网络安全。

首先,美国政府把网络安全战略纳入国家安全战略范畴,提升网络安全战略的地位和民众的网络安全意识。1998年,克林顿签发《关键基础设施保护》总统令(PDD-63),首次明确网络安全战略的概念。报告指出,美国虽然是世界上最强大的国家,但越来越依赖“那些对国家十分重要的物理性的以及基于计算机的系统和资产,它们一旦受损或遭到破坏,将会对国家安全、国家经济安全和国家公众健康及保健产生破坏性的冲击”。(35)2000年12月,克林顿签署《全球化时代的国家安全战略》文件,将网络安全作为国家安全战略的重要组成部分。(36)2009年1月,奥巴马出任美国总统后不久,便根据美国战略与国际问题研究中心提交的《确保新总统任内网络电磁空间安全》专题报告,提出要像1957年10月苏联发射第一颗人造地球卫星那样,举行类似的全民大讨论,提高美国民众网络电磁空间安全意识。(37)经过充分酝酿后,美国政府于2011年集中出台了多项有关网络电磁空间安全的报告,其中比较重要的《网络电磁空间可信身份认证国家战略》(National Strategy for Trusted Identities in Cyberspace,2011年3月)、《网络电磁空间国际战略》(International Strategy for Cyberspace,2011年5月)、《国防部网络电磁空间行动战略》(Department of Defense Strategy for Operating in Cyberspace,2011年7月)和《国防部网络电磁空间政策报告》(Department of Defense Cyberspace Policy Report,2011年11月)。这些报告无不涉及网络电磁空间安全战略问题。

Second, we continue to strengthen the legislative work network electromagnetic field of space. Soon after the United States in order to prevent electronic “September 11 incident” occurred, “9.11” incident (e-9/11 event), President George W. Bush issued Executive Order No. 13231 – “Critical Infrastructure Protection Information Age” , (38) in February 2003 and issued a “critical infrastructure and key assets of physical protection of the national strategy.” (39) documents the communications, information technology, defense industrial base, etc. 18 infrastructure sector as a critical infrastructure, the five major items of nuclear power plants, government facilities and other assets defined as important. In the same month, the United States enacted its first national strategy on network electromagnetic space security – “ensure that the network electromagnetic space security national strategy.” The document up to 76, for the United States to protect the network electromagnetic space security established the guiding framework and priorities. May 2009, the Obama administration issued a “network of electromagnetic space policy review.” The report says, to “the capacity of national security for the next generation network communication and emergency preparation, to develop a coordinated plan.” (40)

Third, focus on top-level design, streamline management network electromagnetic space security organizations. Early in the Clinton administration, the United States will set up an inter-departmental coordination mechanism – the president Critical Infrastructure Protection Board. From the implementation point of view, the role of this institution is limited. After the “9.11” incident, the Bush administration set up by the chairman of the committee for the first time as the “president of network security consultant”, but its mandate is relatively small. After the 2003 establishment of the Department of Homeland Security, the US government handed over responsibility for the US network electromagnetic space security to the ministry. Report of March 2009, US security committee electromagnetic space network to President Obama just appointed submitted a “ensure that any new president within the network of electromagnetic space security”, said the “network of electromagnetic space security issue is a serious national security challenge facing the United States of a network of electromagnetic space security is not just Chief Information Officer IT office tasks, it is not just homeland security and counter-terrorism strategy and …… it is to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and the fight against global ‘jihad’ equally important event. The federal government should bear the main responsibility. ” (41) Under the repeated calls of experts and scholars, the White House also recognized “Without a central coordinating mechanism, no update national strategy, no plan of action for the development and coordination of the executive departments, and no congressional support, by partaking work is insufficient to meet this challenge. ” (40) 163 For this reason, the White House organized the “White House cybersecurity office”, and established close ties with the president can “White House cybersecurity coordinator.” After the integration of the Obama administration, the US federal government currently has six full-time network security agency: Department of Homeland Security under the “US Computer Emergency Response Team”, under the Ministry of Defence, “Joint Operations Force Global Network Operations Center” and “Defense Cybercrime Center “, under the FBI’s” national online survey Joint Task Force “, under the Office of the Director of National Intelligence” Intelligence Community Network Incident Response Center “, and is part of the National Security Agency’s” Cyberspace Security Threat Operations Center. ” Obama administration to adjust to network security management system is primarily intended to improve the efficiency of network security organization and leadership, the formation of a comprehensive national network of electromagnetic space security leadership and coordination system integration.

Fourth, to the outside world announced the implementation of a high-profile network deterrence. May 2009, the Obama administration announced the “Cyberspace Policy Assessment” is made, “From now on, our digital infrastructure will be considered national strategic assets to protect this infrastructure will be a priority of national security.” (42) for the protection of the United States of this strategic asset, in May 2011 the US government announced the “Cyberspace International Strategy” stressed: If potentially hostile country for the US-sponsored cyber attack threat to national security and interests, the United States will not hesitate to use military power. In June, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates in Singapore to attend the 10th Shangri-La Security Dialogue noted in confirming network attacks from his country, the United States regarded as “an act of war” and to give “force to fight back.” (43) This shows that the United States 已把 network security as a top priority, of means by those who seek to attack the national or organizational network infrastructure to benefit the United States resorts to war.

第二,不断强化网络电磁空间领域的立法工作。“9·11事件”发生后不久,美国为防止发生电子“9·11”事件(e-9/11 event),小布什总统发布了13231号行政命令——《保护信息时代的关键基础设施》,(38)2003年2月又颁发了《关键基础设施和重要资产物理保护的国家战略》。(39)这份文件把通讯、信息技术、国防工业基础等18个基础设施部门列为关键基础设施,把核电厂、政府设施等5大项界定为重要资产。同月,美国颁布了首份有关网络电磁空间安全的国家战略——《确保网络电磁空间安全国家战略》。该份文件长达76页,为美国保护网络电磁空间安全确立了指导性框架和优先目标。2009年5月,奥巴马政府出台了《网络电磁空间政策评估报告》。该报告称,要“针对下一代网络的国家安全与应急准备通信的能力,制定一个协调计划”。(40)

第三,着力顶层设计,理顺管理网络电磁空间安全的组织机构。早在克林顿政府时期,美国便设立了一个跨部门的协调机构——总统关键基础设施保护委员会。从实施效果来看,这个机构作用有限。“9·11”事件后,小布什政府首次设立由该委员会主席担任的“总统网络安全顾问”,但其职权比较小。2003年国土安全部成立后,美国政府把负责美国网络电磁空间安全的职责移交给该部。2009年3月,美国网络电磁空间安全委员会向刚上任的奥巴马总统提交了《确保新总统任内网络电磁空间安全》的报告,称“网络电磁空间安全问题是美国国家安全所面临的严重挑战之一。网络电磁空间安全工作不仅仅是信息技术办公室首席信息官的任务,它也不只是国土安全和反恐问题……它是与防止大规模杀伤性武器扩散以及打击全球‘圣战’同等重要的战略大事。联邦政府要担负主要职责”。(41)在专家学者的反复呼吁下,白宫也认识到“如果没有一个中央协调机制、没有更新国家战略、没有各行政部门制定和协调的行动计划,以及没有国会的支持,靠单打独斗的工作方式不足以应付这一挑战”。(40)163为此,白宫组建了“白宫网络安全办公室”,并设立了能与总统密切联系的“白宫网络安全协调员”。经过奥巴马政府的整合,美国联邦政府目前设有六大网络安全专职机构:隶属国土安全部的“美国计算机应急响应小组”,隶属国防部的“联合作战部队全球网络行动中心”和“国防网络犯罪中心”,隶属联邦调查局的“国家网络调查联合任务小组”,隶属国家情报总监办公室的“情报界网络事故响应中心”,以及隶属于国家安全局的“网络空间安全威胁行动中心”。奥巴马政府对网络安全管理体制的调整主要是为了提高网络安全组织领导效率,形成一体化的综合性国家网络电磁空间安全领导和协调体制。

第四,向外界高调宣布实施网络威慑。2009年5月,奥巴马政府在公布《网络空间政策评估》时提出,“从现在起,我们的数字基础设施将被视为国家战略资产。保护这一基础设施将成为国家安全的优先事项”。(42)为保护美国的这项战略资产,2011年5月美国政府公布的《网络空间国际战略》强调:如果潜在敌对国家对美国发起的网络攻击威胁到国家安全与利益,美国将不惜动用军事力量。同年6月,美国国防部长罗伯特·盖茨在新加坡出席第10届香格里拉安全对话时指出,在确认遭到来自他国的网络攻击时,美国视之为“战争行为”,并给予“武力还击”。(43)这表明,美国已把网络安全视为重中之重,对那些企图通过攻击美国网络基础设施获益的国家或组织不惜动用战争的手段。

Fifth, actively build network security defense system to protect the electromagnetic space. In response to the invasion of US network infrastructure behavior, the US government early in 2002 started the “Einstein Program.” Currently, the program has entered the third phase. The first phase of the plan is to achieve Einstein information collection and sharing of safety information. Einstein program is the second phase of intrusion detection systems to scan all Internet traffic and government computers (including private communication section) a copy of the data. When the scanning system will mark the communication data having the characteristics of malicious code, and automatically obtain and store the entire message. Then, the computer network defense department officials for information is identified and stored for review. The third stage is planned Einstein intrusion prevention systems. This system detects a malicious attack agents, and agents of the United States to prevent malicious network attacks. Former US Secretary of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff functional Einstein plan is it this way: If the second phase of Einstein’s plan is “a holding in a roadside police radar, they can advance by telephone warning was drunk or speeding, “then Einstein program is the third phase of a possible” to arrest suspects “and” stop attacks, “the police, it’s like an air defense weapon system, before it can attack the target to shoot down the missile. (44) in October 2009, the implementation of “Einstein Program” and “new national cyberspace security and Communications Integration Center” (New National Cybersecurity and Communications Integration Center, NCCIC) enabled in Arlington, Virginia. The center 24-hour surveillance involving basic network architecture and network threats to national security, the protection of the United States to become the central network security. In addition to the Einstein program, the US National Security Agency is still great efforts to build the so-called “network shield” (Cyber Shield) Project, for use against American competitors in the United States critical infrastructure attacks. This system can transmit packets on the network in real-time analysis, it can quickly filter out all kinds of illegal data packages and other attacks loads; if the system can not exclude a threat, it will start to apply physical isolation mechanism. (45) to create a secure network environment electromagnetic space, enormous amounts of money the United States. In 2008, the Bush administration launched the “National Cybersecurity Initiative comprehensive” budget of up to $ 30 billion. According to media reports, the draft defense budget for fiscal year 2014 to be a substantial increase in US Department of Defense budget network security, network security funds reached a total budget of $ 13 billion each department. (46)

The United States is highly dependent on the electromagnetic space of national network, the national network intrusion greatly. US Department of Defense’s unlawful invasion by a day tens of thousands of times. However, so far the US network infrastructure has not been large-scale cyber attacks, which US cybersecurity strategy proved to be effective from one side. However, the US alleged network electromagnetic space security is actually a network of electromagnetic space to seek hegemony, showing that “security” is based on other national networks electromagnetic space “unsafe” basis, and it will force the other The country also in the network invested heavily in research and development of electromagnetic field of space technology to deal with, resulting in “Network arms race.”

第五,积极构建保障网络电磁空间的安全防御体系。为应对入侵美国网络设施的行为,美国政府早在2002年就启动了“爱因斯坦计划”。目前,该计划已进入第三阶段。爱因斯坦计划的第一阶段主要是实现信息采集和安全信息共享。爱因斯坦计划的第二阶段是检测入侵系统,用以扫描所有互联网流量以及政府电脑(包括私人通信部分)的副本数据。系统扫描时会标记出具有恶意代码特征的通信数据,同时自动获取并存储整个信息。然后,计算机网络防御部门政府官员对被识别出来和存储的信息进行审查。爱因斯坦计划第三阶段是入侵防御系统。该系统对恶意攻击代理进行检测,并阻止恶意代理对美国网络的攻击。美国前国土安全部长切尔托夫对爱因斯坦计划的功能是这样表述的:如果第二阶段爱因斯坦计划是“一个在路边拿着测速雷达的警察,他们可以提前用电话警告有人醉酒或超速驾驶”,那么第三阶段爱因斯坦计划则是一位可以“逮捕疑犯”和“阻止攻击”的警察,这就像一个防空武器系统,它可以在导弹攻击到目标之前将其击落。(44)2009年10月,执行“爱因斯坦计划”的“新国家网络空间安全和通信集成中心”(New National Cybersecurity and Communications Integration Center,NCCIC)在弗吉尼亚州的阿林顿启用。该中心24小时全天候监控涉及基础网络架构和国家安全的网络威胁,成为保护美国网络安全的中枢。除爱因斯坦计划外,美国国家安全局还在大力建设所谓的“网络盾牌”(Cyber Shield)项目,用于抵御美国的竞争对手对美国关键基础设施发动的攻击。这一系统可以对网络传输的信息包进行实时分析,能迅速过滤掉各种非法数据包和其他攻击载荷;如果系统无法排除威胁,会申请启动物理隔离机制。(45)为打造安全的网络电磁空间环境,美国不惜巨资。2008年,小布什政府推出的《国家网络安全全面倡议计划》预算高达300亿美元。据媒体报道,美国2014财年国防预算草案拟大幅增加国防部网络安全经费预算,各部门网络安全经费预算总额达到130亿美元。(46)

美国是高度依赖网络电磁空间的国家,也是大受网络侵扰的国家。美国国防部每天受到的非法入侵达数万次。但是,到目前为止美国的网络基础设施还没有受到大规模的网络攻击,这从一个侧面证明美国的网络安全战略是有效的。不过,美国所称的网络电磁空间安全实际上是要寻求网络电磁空间霸权,可见这一“安全”是建立在别的国家网络电磁空间“不安全”的基础之上的,它必将迫使别的国家也要在网络电磁空间领域投入巨资研发应对技术,从而导致“网络军备竞赛”。

Fourth, through the advocacy of “network freedom” implementation of network penetration strategy

Due to the popularity of the network, the global number of Internet users increased dramatically. According to statistics Internetworldstats.com, and as of December 31, 2012, the global number of Internet users reached 2.405 billion, accounting for 34.3 percent of global population. (47) where the number of Chinese Internet users more development trend showing a blowout. According to the China Internet Network Information Center released data, as of the end of December 2012, China’s netizens reached 564 million, the year of new users 5,090 million and Internet penetration rate of 42.1%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points over the end of the year; slightly Bo 309 million registered users, more than the end of 2011 increased 5,873 million.

Seen from the above statistics, human society has entered a “fiber age.” Spread nature of the network is not just the flow of information, but also the sharing of information network participants, negotiation, compromise and confrontation, including deep-level activities behind the concept of action, will, emotions. (48) In particular, especially Web2.0 era. Development and application of this technology to make a breakthrough in the field of Internet is essentially a computer communication era, ushered in a revolution in ideas and thoughts. (49) in the Web 2.0 environment, participation in interactive is a more obvious characteristics of user demand. Most online content is to create a user, different users can easily share wisdom, namely the use of collective wisdom to make the Internet into a sense of global brain. Web2.0 individual-centered, users not only information the reader, but also the publisher of information, communicators, modified by. In other words, by a few leading resource control by centralized control of the Internet system began to change for the bottom-up by the majority of users of the collective wisdom and strength to dominate the Internet system, opening the era of the Internet’s roots.

Popularity of the network of traditional print media and television revolution. Government and the consortium can easily control a newspaper or a television station. A country may also be issued in other countries refuse to newspapers in the country, do not let other countries landed a television program in the country, thereby more effectively prevent other countries to the ideological penetration. However, the Internet real-time dissemination of information and without Borders greatly weakened the ability of countries to withstand external ideological penetration. After the Cold War, the United States launched the Iraq war and by the war in Afghanistan to extend “American-style democracy”, that is by way of regime change “top-down” to promote democracy, but frustrated, in trouble. (50), however, began in the “Arab Spring” in Tunisia saw the US has “point” and “interactive” features of the Internet, to help the United States “bottom-up” to pursue its expansion strategy democracy. So the United States began to increasingly rely on international hegemony it has in the technical aspects of the Internet, began to fully exploit the great advantages of foreign ideological penetration of their enjoyment of the Internet as an important tool for ideological penetration of his country.

First, the US government set up a network penetration leadership. In 2002, the US government established the “Internet diplomatic team,” the team after being incorporated into the “Internet diplomatic office,” the US State Department. In February 2006, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice established the “Working Group on Global Internet Freedom”, the main research on the Internet and free foreign policy. In 2008, the Rand Corporation report to the US Department of Defense, suggested that the US should help reformers obtain and use information program, which provides a number of measures to encourage US companies to invest in communications infrastructure and information technology in the region. Obama called the US the “Internet president.” When he ran for the presidency in 2008, through superior rabbit network (Youtube), Facebook (Facebook), Twitter network (Twitter) and MySpace (Myspace), etc. send a message, users win support. After the White House, Obama actively using Web 2.0 technology to promote US public diplomacy to promote the American spirit to the world and to promote American-style democracy. Under the White House’s push, the United States set up the relevant institutions, leadership network penetration work. Under the leadership of these organizations, the US State Department after the launch of Twitter in French, Spanish, Arabic and Persian launched version, also plans to launch Chinese, Russian and Hindi version.

四、通过倡导“网络自由”实施网络渗透战略

由于网络的普及,全球网民数量急剧增加。据Internetworldstats.com的数据统计,截止到2012年12月31日,全球互联网用户数达24.05亿,占全球人口总数的34.3%。(47)其中,中国网民人数更呈现出井喷式发展态势。据中国互联网络信息中心发布的数据,截止到2012年12月底,中国网民规模达5.64亿,全年新增网民5,090万,互联网普及率为42.1%,比上年底提升3.8个百分点;微博注册用户3.09亿,比2011年底增加5,873万。

从上述统计数据可见,人类社会已经进入了“光纤时代”。网络传播本质上不仅仅是信息的流动,而且是网络参与者对信息的共享、协商、妥协和对抗,其中包括行动背后的观念、意志、情绪等深层次的活动。(48)特别是Web2.0时代的到来更是如此。这项技术的开发与应用使互联网领域突破了实质上是计算机交流的时代,迎来了一次理念和思想的革命。(49)在Web 2.0环境下,参与互动性是用户需求的一个比较明显的特点。网上的内容大多是由用户来创造,不同用户可以非常方便地共享智慧,即利用集体智慧使互联网变成某种意义上的全球大脑。Web2.0以个人为中心,网民既是信息的阅读者,同时也是信息的发布者、传播者、修改者。换句话说,由少数资源控制者集中控制主导的互联网体系开始转变为自下而上的由广大用户集体智慧和力量主导的互联网体系,开启了互联网的草根化时代。

网络的普及是对传统平面媒体和电视的一次革命。政府和财团可以轻而易举地控制某份报纸或某家电视台。一个国家也可以拒绝其他国家的报纸在该国发行,不让其他国家的电视节目在该国落地,从而较为有效地防止别国对之进行思想渗透。但是,互联网信息传播的即时性和无国界性大大削弱了国家抵御外部思想渗透的能力。冷战结束之后,美国通过发动伊拉克战争和阿富汗战争来扩展“美国式民主”,即通过以政权更迭的方式“自上而下”地推进民主,但屡屡受挫,陷入困境。(50)不过,始于突尼斯的“阿拉伯之春”使美国看到了具有“点对点”和“互动”特点的互联网,有助于美国“自下而上”地推行其民主扩展战略。所以美国开始日益倚重它在互联网技术方面拥有的国际霸权地位,开始充分发掘其享有的对外国进行思想渗透的巨大优势,将互联网当作对他国进行意识形态渗透的重要工具。

首先,美国政府组建了进行网络渗透的领导机构。2002年,美国政府组建了“互联网外交研究小组”,该小组后被并入美国国务院的“互联网外交办公室”。2006年2月,国务卿赖斯成立了“全球互联网自由工作组”,主要研究有关互联网自由的对外政策。2008年,兰德公司向美国国防部提交报告,建议美国应该帮助变革者获取和使用信息计划,即提供一些措施鼓励美国公司投资这一地区的通信基础设施和信息技术。奥巴马号称美国“互联网总统”。他在2008年竞选总统职位时,通过优兔网(Youtube)、脸谱网(Facebook)、推特网(Twitter)和聚友网(Myspace)等发送信息,赢得网民支持。入主白宫后,奥巴马积极利用Web 2.0技术推动美国的公共外交,向全世界宣扬美国精神和推广美国式民主政治。在白宫的推动之下,美国设立了相关机构,领导网络渗透工作。在这些机构的领导下,美国国务院在推出推特的法语、西班牙语版之后,又推出了阿拉伯语和波斯语版,还计划推出中文、俄语和印地语版。

其次,高举所谓“互联网自由”的大旗,从法理上否定其他国家的网络主权。针对一些国家出于国家安全考虑,实施网络监管的做法,美国打出了“互联网自由”的大旗。2010年1月21日,美国国务卿希拉里·克林顿提出互联网“连接自由”,并声称将之作为“21世纪外交方略的一部分”。(51)次年2月15日,希拉里发表演说称,互联网自由为“普世权利”,是“加速政治、社会和经济变革的巨大力量”,由于“互联网继续在许多国家受到多种限制”,因此美国要在全球范围内大力推动互联网自由。用她的话说,就是“我们对互联网自由的承诺是对人民权利的承诺,我们也会相应地采取行动。关注和应对互联网自由受到的威胁已经成为我国外交人员和发展专家日常工作的一部分”。(52)2011年5月,白宫出台的《网络电磁空间国际战略》将确保“互联网自由”纳入国家战略范畴。报告称“国家不能也不应该在信息自由流动和保护他们的网络安全方面作出选择”,“确保系统安全的工具不能妨碍创新,压制表达或联系自由……美国致力于发起国际倡议和制定促进网络安全的标准,同时保障自由贸易和拓宽信息的自由流动”。(53)为了实现所谓“网络自由”,美国政府一方面向有关国家施加政治压力,另一方面在财政上支持开发“翻墙”软件。奥巴马在其任期内投入数千万美元,“支持正在利用尖端技术手段对抗互联网压制行为的新涌现的技术人员和活动人士”。当前美国力倡“互联网自由”是上世纪40年代美国力推“贸易自由化”的翻版,是对其他国家网络主权的宣战。

第三,拉拢网络公司高管,延揽网络渗透人才。2009年,美国国务院组织推特网的创始人杰克·多尔西及其他多名美国网络公司高管到伊拉克考察,意在让他们在伊拉克建设社交信息网,以引导伊拉克的民意和影响伊拉克国内政治发展。2010年,美国国务卿希拉里·克林顿还特意宴请杰克·多尔西和谷歌公司首席执行官埃里克·施密特,要他们利用新媒体输出美国的价值观。这些新媒体的领军人物在2011年爆发的阿拉伯世界“茉莉花革命”中扮演了重要角色。为了更有效地影响阿拉伯世界的网民,美国国务院积极延揽阿拉伯语、波斯语和乌尔都语人才,将他们组成“数字外联小组”,参与伊斯兰世界的网络聊天室的讨论。对于网络在推动北非变局中发挥的作用,美国国务院政策设计顾问杰拉德·科恩(Jerad Cohen)予以高度评价,他将“脸谱”网称为有史以最有效的促进民主工具之一,称赞互联网是一个在全球范围内促进自由、平等和人权价值观的有效工具。(54)

References:

①William Gibson,Neuromancer,New York:Ace Books,1984,p.69.

②吴巍.赛博空间与通信网络安全问题研究[J].中国电子科学研究院学报,2011年第5期,第474页.

③刘兴.赛博及其相关术语的来源与概念[J].指挥信息系统与技术,2010年第2期。作者认为,“cyber”源自希腊语,是“掌舵和调节”的意思,可以理解为统治与管理、控制与调整。所以有学者主张将“Cyberspace”译为控域.

④美国高边疆战略的提出者丹尼尔·格雷厄姆提出,在整个人类历史上,凡是能够最有效地从人类活动的一个领域迈向另一个领域的国家,都会取得巨大的战略优势。参见[美]丹尼尔·奥·格雷厄姆:《高边疆——新的国家战略》,张健志、马俊才、傅家祯译,北京:军事科学出版社,1988年版,第5页.

⑤Jose Vericat,”Is the Google World a Better Place,” Journal of International Affairs,Vol.24,No.1,2010.

⑥美国继续把持全球互联网管理权[EB/OL].http://damin0728.blog.sohu.com/248698464.html.

⑦The Department of Defense,The National Military Strategy for Cyberspace Operations(2006),p.10.

⑧The Department of Defense,National Military Strategy(2004),p.18.

⑨The Department of Defense,The National Military Strategy for Cyberspace Operations(2006),p.v.

⑩The Department of Defense,The National Military Strategy for Cyberspace Operations(2006),pp.19-20.

(11)Thomas Rid and Marc Hecker,War 2.0:Irregular War in the Information Age,Westport:Praeger Security International,2009,p.58.

(12)美国网军即将部署到位[N].参考消息,2013-07-20,第5版.

(13)TECHNOLYTICS,Cyber Commander’s Handbook.转引自王源.赛博武器的现状与发展[J].中国电子科学研究院学报,2011年第6期.

(14)Shane P.Courville,Air Force and the Cyberspace Mission Defending:the Air Force’s Computer Network in the Future,2007.

(15)刘红军.赛博空间武器——赛博飞机[J].中国电子科学研究院学报,2011年第6期.

(16)Thomas Rid and Marc Hecker,War 2.0:Irregular War in the Information Age,p.37.

(17)Thomas Rid and Marc Hecker,War 2.0:Irregular War in the Information Age,p.57.

(18)美国国防部呈国会报告.网络中心战[R].第11-12页.

(19)David S.Alberts,John J.Garstka,Frederich P.Stein,Network Centric Warfare:Developing and Leveraging Information Superiority,CCRP Publication Series,2000,p.100.
(21)Arthur K.Cebrowski and John J.Garstka,”Network-Centric Warfare:Its Origin and Future,” Proceedings,January 1998.

(20) 在网络带宽迅速增加的同时,网上的IP地址和资源更呈几何级数增加,再加上传感器网络提供的图像或数据,使网上资源或信息极其丰富。第三代互联网技术开发出来之前,人们使用网上资源要么是通过直接访问网站,要么是通过搜索引擎来查找资源。对于前者来说,就如用户打开电灯开关时需要指定一个发电厂一样;而对于后者来说,输入一下查询关键词可能有数万乃至数千万个结果,查找不便,效率低下。网格(Grid,也译成信息栅格)技术,彻底改变了这种效率低下的状况,真正实现了网络用户之间的互连、互通和互操作。这一技术将散布在网络上的资源虚拟为一个极其强大的信息系统,实现了计算、存储、数据、信息、软件、通信等各种资源的全面共享。参见刘鹏、王立华主编.走向军事网格时代[M].北京:解放军出版社2004年版,第7页.

(22)Arthur K.Cebrowski and John J.Garstka,”Network-Centric Warfare:Its Origin and Future,” Proceedings,January 1998.

(23)美国国防部呈国会报告.网络中心战[R].第11页.

(24)物理域是部队企图影响态势存在的领域;信息域是创造、处理并共享信息的领域。它是促进作战人员之间信息交流、传送现代军队的指挥控制信息和传递指挥官作战意图的领域。在争取信息优势的关键斗争中,信息域是斗争焦点;认知域是知觉、感知、理解、信仰和价值观存在的领域,是通过推理作出决策的领域。这一领域包括领导才能、士气、部队凝聚力、训练水平与经验、情势感知和公众舆论等无形因素。参见美国国防部呈国会报告.网络中心战[M].第11页.

(25)约翰·阿奎拉等.决战信息时代[M].长春:吉林人民出版社2001年版,第25页.

(26)Thomas Rid and Marc Hecker,War 2.0:Irregular War in the Information Age,p.37.

(27)Charles E.Croom,Jr.,”Guarding Cyberspace Global Network Operations,” Joint Force Quarterly,No.46,July 2007,p.69.

(28)网络战效果与核弹相似[N].参考消息,2012-06-26,第12版.

(29)美国视网络犯罪为安全稳定巨大威胁[EB/OL].http://intl.ce.cn/specials/zxgjzh/201207/25/t20120725_23522095.shtml.

(30)http://www.mcafee.com/cn/resources/reports/rp-good-decade-for-cybercrime.pdf.

(31)中国国际战略学会军控与裁军研究中心.美国网络空间安全战略文件汇编[M].第159页.

(32)网络恐怖活动日趋普遍,“网络反恐”成当务之急[EB/OL].http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2005-08/10/content_3334114.htm.

(33)中国国际战略学会军控与裁军研究中心.美国网络空间安全战略文件汇编[M].北京:军事谊文出版社2009年版,第96页.

(34)http://intl.ce.cn/specials/zxgjzh/201207/25/t20120725_23522095.shtml.

(35)The White House,National Plan for Information Systems Protection Version 1.0:An Invitation to a Dialogue,2000.http://fas.org/irp/offdocs/pdd/CIP-plan.pdf.

(36)White House,A National Security Strategy For A Global Age,December 2000,http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/national/nss-0012.pdf.

(37)中国国际战略学会军控与裁军研究中心.美国网络空间安全战略文件汇编[M].第156页.

(38)Executive Order 13231 of October 16,2001,Critical Infrastructure Protection in the Information Age,http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/eo/eo-13231.htm.

(39)National Strategy for the Physical Protection of Critical Infrastructures and Key Assets,February 2003.http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/Physical_Strategy.pdf.

(40)中国国际战略学会军控与裁军研究中心.美国网络空间安全战略文件汇编[M].第188页.

(41)中国国际战略学会军控与裁军研究中心.美国网络空间安全战略文件汇编[M].第99页.

(42)Remarks by the President on Securing our Nation’s Cyber Infrastructure,May 29,2009,http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-securing-ournations-cyber infrastructure.

(43)Reuter,”Cates:US ready to use force against cyber attackers,” June 4,2011,http://www.jpost.com/VideoArticles/Video/Article.aspx?id=223559.

(44)Jack Goldsmith.The Cyberthreat,Government Network Operations,and the Fourth Amendment[EB/OL].http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2010/1208_4th_amendment_goldsmith.aspx.

(45)王源、张博.赛博武器的现状与发展[J].中国电子科学研究院学报,2011年第3期.

(46)美打造网盾为网络战铺路[EB/OL].http://mil.news.sina.com.cn/2013-04-22/1013722502.html.

(47)http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm.

(48)蔡文之.互联网时代的地缘关系新范式.载上海社会科学院世界经济与政治研究院编.地缘关系与区域秩序的建构[M].北京:时事出版社2011年版,第6页.

(49)Web2.0应用功能包括:博客(Blog)、简易聚合(RSS)、开放式应用程序接口(API)、维基(Wiki)、分类分众标签(Tag)、社会性书签(Socialbookmark)、社交网络(SNS)、异步传输(Ajax)等,底层是XML和接口协议.

(50)李建波、崔建树.美国在阿富汗的困境研究[J].国际展望,2012年第6期.

(51)http://www.hexi2009.com/thread-13267-1-1.html.

(52)http://www.hexi2009.com/thread-13267-1-1.html.

(53)White House,”International Strategy for Cyberspace:Prosperity,Security,and Openness in a Networked World,” May 2011,p.5.

(54)晋继勇.美国互联网外交战略评析[J].郑州大学学报,2010年第4期.

Original Article HERE

 

China’s Military Hacking of US Business Subsides

US Officials: #chinese military has slashed corporate #Hacking | TheHill

48287428.cached

By Cory Bennett

The Chinese military significantly reduced its cyber theft of American corporate secrets following the Justice Department’s May 2014 indictment of five Chinese officers, U.S. officials told The Washington Post.

And the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has not returned to its previous level of commercial espionage since then, said several current and former U.S. officials.

“The big picture is that from 2014 on, the administration pursued a much more direct and coercive approach with China, and it has produced results over time,” Evan Medeiros, a former senior director for Asia affairs on the National Security Council, told The Post.

The report comes a day before top U.S. and Chinese officials begin several days of talks that aim to flesh out a September deal between the two countries to eradicate corporate hacking.

“For a period of time following the indictments, there was a very significant decrease” by the PLA, an unnamed U.S. official told The Post. “And today we are definitely not at the level that we were before the indictments.”

The narrative cuts against some recent reports that China’s civilian spy agency, the Ministry of State Security (MSS), has not reduced its commercial espionage efforts in the wake of the September agreement, which was struck during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Washington, D.C. in September.

But it’s also possible that China has transitioned some of its digital theft from the PLA to the MSS, which can better hide its digital tracks.

The MSS is believed to be behind some of the more major U.S. breaches over the past year, including the intrusions at health insurer Anthem and the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), in which over 20 million federal workers had their sensitive data stolen.

But those hacks were likely part of China’s ongoing digital espionage campaign to gather detailed information on U.S. government workers, not an attempt to steal intellectual property.

Cyber espionage was not part of the September agreement between the two global powers.

A U.S. official told The Post that this week’s meetings will be a good opportunity to discuss China’s ongoing commitment to its September deal, but that it will take time to determine whether the Asian power is fully complying.

“As we move forward, we will continue to monitor China’s cyber activities closely and press China to abide by all of its commitments,” the senior administration official said. “We have been clear with the Chinese government that we are watching to ensure their words are matched by actions.”

Read Original article at: The Hill

 

Chinese Cyber Espionage – Infiltration of Target Networks Gets Sophisticated

Chinese hackers have expanded their attacks to parking malware on popular file-sharing services including Dropbox and Google Drive to lure unsuspecting  cyber-victims into downloading infected files and revealing compromising sensitive information. These Chinese hackers are also using more sophisticated cyber espionage tactics, focusing their cyber-spying on specific targets via targeted ‘white lists’ infect only specific visitors, named as high value targets, luring them unwittingly to compromised websites.

Chinese hackers are using the following sophisticated techniques, technology and protocols (TTPs) to successfully execute their cyber espionage campaigns:

  • Using noted Mandarin Chinese or Modern Russian hacking TTPs that are specifically charectreristic of both Chinese & Russian based hackers;
  • China’s Ministry of Public Security (MPS) is noting an increase in unauthorized access cases throughout Greater China;
  • Western media file sharing services such as Dropbox and Google Drive are being manipulated for launching successful hacker attack campaigns.

Surveillance and information extfiltration techniques are typically used only by sophisticated hackers from China and Russia who have been given specific cyber targeting packages for cyber-exploitation.

The level of hacking is a sign, they say, of how important China views Hong Kong, where 79 days of protests late last year brought parts of the territory, a major regional financial hub, to a standstill. The scale of the protests raised concerns in Beijing about political unrest on China’s periphery.

“We’re the most co-ordinated opposition group on Chinese soil, (and) have a reasonable assumption that Beijing is behind the hacking,” said Lam Cheuk-ting, chief executive of Hong Kong’s Democratic Party, which says it has been a victim of cyber attacks on its website and some members’ email accounts.

U.S.-based Internet security company FireEye said the attacks via Dropbox were aimed at “precisely those whose networks Beijing would seek to monitor”, and could provide China with advance warning of protests and information on pro-democracy leaders. The company said half its customers in Hong Kong and Taiwan were attacked by government and professional hackers in the first half of this year – two and a half times the global average.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Public Security Bureau and the Liaison Office of the Central People’s Government in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region did not respond to requests for comment. The Defence Ministry said the issue was not part of its remit. China has previously denied accusations of hacking, calling them groundless, and saying it is a victim.

The Hong Kong police said its Cyber Security and Technology Crime Bureau works with other law enforcement agencies to combat cross-border crime, but did not respond to questions on how much information it shares with mainland Chinese authorities, the origin of the Hong Kong cyber attacks, or whether these might be a source of instability or concern.

Police data show a drop in reported “unauthorised access”, which includes Internet or email account abuse and hacking, over the past two years. Many of the victims Reuters spoke to said they hadn’t bothered to report being hacked.

SWITCHING TACTICS

Like other groups taking on the might of Beijing – from Uighurs and exiled Tibetans to some Taiwanese – Hong Kong activists, academics and journalists have become more savvy and adopted tactics that, in turn, force hackers to get savvier still.

When Tibetan exile groups stopped clicking on files attached to emails, to avoid falling victim to a common form of ‘spear phishing’ attack, hackers switched their malware to Google Drive, hoping victims would think these files were safer, said Citizen Lab, a Canada-based research organisation which works with Tibetans and other NGOs.

Hackers also recently used Dropbox to lure Chinese language journalists in Hong Kong into downloading infected files. FireEye, which discovered the attack, said it was the first time it had seen this approach.

“We don’t have any arrogance to think we can beat them,” said Mark Simon, senior executive at the parent company of Hong Kong’s Apple Daily, a media group on the front line of the attacks.

STRANGE WORDS

Trying to stay ahead of the hackers, activists and others use multiple mobile phones with different SIM chips, encrypted messaging apps, apps that automatically delete tweets, and code words to set up meetings. If someone thinks they may be arrested, they remove themselves from group chats.

Some things are kept offline.

“If we want to talk, we have some signal,” said Derek Lam, a member of student group Scholarism that helped organise the protests. “It’s a few words … if I say some words that are really strange it means we have to talk somewhere privately.”

Law professor and protest organizer Benny Tai stores personal data, such as names, email addresses and mobile numbers, on an external hard drive that he says he only accesses on a computer without an Internet connection.

The pro-democracy Apple Daily, which says it is hacked on an almost weekly basis, has tightened its email security software, and has its lawyers use couriers rather than email. FireEye last year connected denial of service (DDoS) attacks against Apple Daily with more professional cyber spying attacks, saying there may be a “common quartermaster”. It said China’s government would be the entity most interested in these “political objectives”.

SOPHISTICATED HACKS

Steven Adair, co-founder of U.S.-based security firm Volexity, said that code hidden on pro-democracy websites last year, including those of the Democratic Party and the Alliance for True Democracy, suggested a group he said “we strongly suspect to be Chinese… who is very well resourced.”

He said such tactics were more usually seen employed by Russian hackers, aimed at very specific targets and designed to be as unobtrusive as possible. “It’s a real evolution in targeting,” he said.

In the run-up to Hong Kong district council elections earlier this month, hackers used more basic techniques, breaking into at least 20 Gmail accounts at the Democratic Party, according to party officials and Google logs seen by Reuters.

Between April and June, many hacked accounts were forwarding emails to lovechina8964@gmail.com. An examination of the hackers’ IP addresses by the party’s IT experts found some appeared to originate in China, party officials said.

(Reporting by Clare Baldwin and James Pomfret in HONG KONG and Jeremy Wagstaff in SINGAPORE, with additional reporting by Teenie Ho in HONG KONG and Michael Martina and Ben Blanchard in BEIJING; Editing by Ian Geoghegan)
Read more at Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/29/cybersecurity-hongkong-insight-pix-tv-gr-idUSL3N13E35U20151129#lPgUKAm9SkpjG973.99

Chinese Cyber Conflict Discussions, Information & Reasearch